Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:25:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
B0 0xb069…0e1c world 277 markets active 0h ago coverage 251d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$9,021 (-10%) realized −$9,011 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate63%173W / 102L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$341per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$997now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,888
7 days−$9,830
14 days−$9,923
30 days−$9,225
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 72% −$8,401
other 11% −$660
crypto 7% +$15
finance 3% +$293
politics 3% −$639
sports 2% +$120
economics 1% +$354
weather 1% −$141
tech 0% −$64
culture 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -34.2% -40.5% 36% 21% -45.8%
≤30d 60 -16.2% -24.2% 47% 25% -24.7%
≤90d 129 -6.8% -15.7% 59% 44% -23.0%
all 275 -4.0% -13.2% 63% 44% -18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 44% -18.4%
10% -21.5% 31% -26.2%
15% -29.0% 22% -33.3%
20% -36.0% 13% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$175 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

251d coverage
Net worth$997
Realized−$9,011
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses173 / 102
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)275 / 277
History coverage251d
Avg bet$341
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 275 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $1,000 $992 −$8 (-1%)
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $7 $5 −$2 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 43 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $101 −$28 -27%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $608 +$197 +32%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1,009 +$241 +24%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1,501 +$28 +2%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $8 −$7 -97%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $4,174 −$2,327 -56%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $54 +$69 +126%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $504 −$141 -28%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $202 +$84 +41%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $8 −$7 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,111 +$531 +48%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 16 $970 −$265 -27%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? Jun 16 $100 −$100 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 16 $1,955 −$1,879 -96%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $1,007 −$1,000 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $2,000 −$1,908 -95%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $2,600 −$2,524 -97%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $31 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $1,201 −$763 -64%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? Jun 15 $100 −$3 -3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $700 +$59 +8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $900 +$29 +3%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 +$122 +120%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 −$82 -81%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $3,300 +$160 +5%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $5 −$4 -73%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $102 +$144 +141%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $5,284 +$15 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $20 +$23 +117%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$44 +44%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 11 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 11 $100 +$13 +13%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $1,000 −$96 -10%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 10 $1,000 −$215 -22%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Iceland? Jun 10 $5 +$13 +250%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $1,000 +$113 +11%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $100 +$5 +5%
Will Argentina vs. Iceland end in a draw? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 10 $6 +$9 +150%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $107 −$105 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $3,900 +$84 +2%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 04 $100 −$100 -100%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 04 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 02 $600 −$80 -13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 42¢ $74 13m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $101 1h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 11¢ $7 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 80¢ $109 8h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 73¢ $101 9h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 73¢ $696 10h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $1,011 14h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $507 21h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 22h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 89¢ $1,249 23h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,529 25h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 98¢ $1,501 25h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $1,009 25h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 11¢ $8 25h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $123 45h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 53¢ $363 45h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $31 45h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $24 45h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $285 47h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 7¢ $8 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $102 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $1,007 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $504 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 3¢ $100 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $68 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 1¢ $92 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 1¢ $76 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 21¢ $31 3d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $31 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 6¢ $6 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $997.34 · official $998.62 (match) · 810 history records