Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:12:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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B0 0xb060…9572 weather 1764 markets active 2h ago coverage 48d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 48d only
✗ bot/MM pace (52 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1,085 (-4%) realized −$1,091 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate60%1056W / 716L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day52.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$848now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$285
7 days−$364
14 days−$332
30 days−$509
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 62% −$576
finance 15% +$47
world 7% +$1
other 7% −$75
crypto 5% −$85
tech 2% +$27
sports 2% −$141
culture 1% +$10
politics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (52 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-23.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 88 -69.2% -72.1% 19% 6% -23.7%
≤30d 891 -11.2% -19.6% 65% 21% -12.9%
≤90d 1772 -14.8% -23.0% 60% 17% -14.1%
all 1772 -14.8% -23.0% 60% 17% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover52.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.0% 17% -14.1%
10% ← realistic here -30.3% 12% -22.3%
15% -37.1% 11% -29.8%
20% -43.2% 11% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$848
Realized−$1,091
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses1056 / 716
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions16
Markets (closed)1772 / 1764
History coverage48d ⚠
Avg bet$14
Trades / day52.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 1772 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No 94¢ 95¢ $151 $152 +$1 (+1%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 89¢ 90¢ $102 $104 +$2 (+2%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,850 (HIGH) in June? No 90¢ 98¢ $50 $55 +$4 (+9%)
Critical Discord Incident by June 30? No 89¢ 88¢ $53 $52 −$1 (-2%)
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? No 96¢ 99¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 86¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+3%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 94¢ 94¢ $51 $51 +$0 (+0%)
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $51 $51 +$0 (+0%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 93¢ $51 $50 −$1 (-1%)
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No 93¢ 93¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? No 98¢ 97¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-0%)
No-confidence vote against Spain PM Sanchez by June 30? No 97¢ 90¢ $51 $47 −$4 (-7%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 57¢ 58¢ $28 $29 +$1 (+3%)
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $14 $13 −$0 (-2%)
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 484 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C on April 30? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on April 29? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on May 3? Jun 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 70°F or higher on April Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on May 1? Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on May 3? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on May 3? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 30? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ma Jun 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on May 3? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on April 30? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on May 3? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on May 3? Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C on April 30? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on April 30? Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on May 1? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on May 1? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on April 30? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Ma Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 72-73°F on May 1? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on May 1? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Ap Jun 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on May 1? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on May 3? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C or higher on April 30? Jun 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on May 1? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on April 30? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on Ap Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 76-77°F on April 30? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on May 3? Jun 19 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on April 30 Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on May 3? Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on May 3? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on April 30? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on May 3? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on April 30? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on May 1? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on April 30 Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on April 29? Jun 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on May 1? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on May 3? Jun 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on April 30? Jun 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on April 30 Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on May 3? Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on Ma Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 56-57°F on April 30 Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on April 30 Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on April 30 Jun 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 1? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on May 3? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa SELL No 61¢ $3 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? BUY No 98¢ $31 1h
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa BUY No 61¢ $3 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $31 1h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $11 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? BUY No 98¢ $17 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? BUY No 98¢ $0 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $29 1h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $14 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $12 20h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 62¢ $31 21h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 98¢ $10 22h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $11 22h
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? SELL No 99¢ $51 22h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 71¢ $36 22h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 98¢ $158 22h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? SELL No 97¢ $51 23h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 98¢ $54 24h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 AND Switzerland vs. Bosnia and He BUY 2¢ $10 25h
No one announced as next James Bond? SELL Yes 97¢ $24 28h
No one announced as next James Bond? SELL Yes 97¢ $31 29h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 100¢ $118 43h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 100¢ $16 43h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 100¢ $8 43h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 100¢ $30 43h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 100¢ $27 43h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 95¢ $190 43h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 86¢ $26 44h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 86¢ $1 44h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 86¢ $15 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $847.93 · official $847.93 (match) · 3500 history records