Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T18:35:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B0 0xb05f…4916 world 37 markets active 6d ago coverage 265d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate43%16W / 21L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$2
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% +$2
other 31% +$1
politics 16% $0
crypto 8% +$1
sports 7% $0
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +2.1% -7.6% 50% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 12 +0.7% -8.9% 67% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 13 +0.7% -8.9% 69% 0% -8.9%
all 37 +0.8% -8.8% 43% 3% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 3% -9.2%
10% -17.5% 0% -17.9%
15% -25.5% 0% -25.8%
20% -32.8% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.4 per $1 lost it wins $4.4
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

265d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses16 / 21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage265d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $12 $0 +4%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $35 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $34 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $38 $0 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $38 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $136 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 03 $33 +$1 +2%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 02 $17 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $38 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 31 $64 +$1 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? May 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $35 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 28 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 16 $25 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 10 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October? Oct 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 09 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 09 $5 $0 -0%
Trump out as President in 2025? Oct 09 $23 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Oct 09 $2 +$1 +22%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 08 $22 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025? Oct 08 $24 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Oct 08 $25 $0 +0%
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 07 $24 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 07 $25 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 06 $24 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 06 $25 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 05 $50 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 05 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Oct 04 $25 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Kazakhstan? Oct 04 $25 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 04 $25 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 02 $13 $0 -1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 02 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 30 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Sep 30 $25 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $12 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $12 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 83¢ $35 6d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 83¢ $35 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $35 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $34 7d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $38 7d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $38 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 8d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $26 8d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $9 8d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $4 8d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $31 8d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 51¢ $26 8d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 51¢ $9 8d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 50¢ $34 8d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $3 9d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $6 9d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $29 9d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $37 9d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $1 9d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $31 9d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $17 9d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $15 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 62¢ $33 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 61¢ $33 24d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $6 25d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $11 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 125 history records