Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:33:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B0 0xb05e…599a sports 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$592 (-44%) realized −$533 · open −$59
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%7W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$322now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$608
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-34.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -27.3% -34.2% 39% 39% -62.1%
≤30d 18 -27.3% -34.2% 39% 39% -62.1%
≤90d 18 -27.3% -34.2% 39% 39% -62.1%
all 18 -27.3% -34.2% 39% 39% -62.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.2% 39% -62.1%
10% -40.5% 39% -65.7%
15% -46.3% 39% -69.0%
20% -51.6% 28% -72.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 89% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -58% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -58% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -44% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$65 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$322
Realized−$533
Unrealized−$59
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses7 / 11
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions5
Markets (closed)18 / 23
History coverage6d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Los Angeles Angels 42¢ 40¢ $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Spread: PortlandFire (-2.5) Seattle Storm 58¢ 47¢ $100 $81 −$19 (-19%)
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire Seattle Storm 53¢ 40¢ $100 $76 −$23 (-23%)
Spread: Indiana Fever (-1.5) Indiana Fever 56¢ 48¢ $68 $59 −$9 (-14%)
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 173.5 Over 51¢ 46¢ $13 $12 −$1 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Indiana Fever (-8.5) Jun 17 $101 +$82 +80%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-12.5) Jun 16 $101 +$71 +70%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-2.5) Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) Jun 14 $5 +$3 +50%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $5 +$7 +134%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $5 +$5 +105%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) Jun 13 $5 +$3 +50%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $1 +$1 +119%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Indiana Fever (-1.5) BUY Indiana Fever 56¢ $69 59m
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 42¢ $102 10h
Spread: PortlandFire (-2.5) BUY Seattle Storm 58¢ $101 20h
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire BUY Seattle Storm 53¢ $101 26h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 173.5 BUY Over 51¢ $13 26h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Cleveland Guardians 43¢ $102 35h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Chicago White Sox 44¢ $102 35h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 41¢ $102 35h
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx BUY PortlandFire 12¢ $103 2d
Spread: Indiana Fever (-8.5) BUY Indiana Fever 55¢ $101 2d
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-2.5) BUY Las Vegas Aces 52¢ $101 2d
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-12.5) BUY Minnesota Lynx 58¢ $101 2d
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings BUY Las Vegas Aces 58¢ $101 2d
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) BUY Kansas City Royals 66¢ $5 3d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 45¢ $5 3d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY St. Louis Cardinals 50¢ $5 3d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 42¢ $5 3d
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 66¢ $5 4d
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) BUY New York Mets 65¢ $5 4d
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Houston Astros 48¢ $5 4d
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Spurs 49¢ $102 5d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 45¢ $1 5d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Minnesota Twins 46¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $322.12 · official $322.12 (match) · 30 history records