Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:50:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B0 0xb05e…b962 other 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$579 (-48%) realized −$568 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -48% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -60% what you keep after slip
Net edge-60%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate10%1W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$109per market
Trades / day27.0pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% −$227
other 44% −$405
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-53.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -48.1% -53.1% 10% 10% -59.5%
≤30d 10 -48.1% -53.1% 10% 10% -59.5%
≤90d 10 -48.1% -53.1% 10% 10% -59.5%
all 10 -48.1% -53.1% 10% 10% -59.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -53.1% 10% -59.5%
10% ← realistic here -57.6% 10% -63.4%
15% -61.7% 10% -66.9%
20% -65.4% 10% -70.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -55% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -48% · $-wt -55% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$72 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$568
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses1 / 9
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$109
Trades / day27.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 16¢ 12¢ $49 $38 −$11 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 −$13 -53%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $50 +$29 +58%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $150 −$118 -78%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $250 −$86 -34%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $100 −$23 -23%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $200 −$137 -68%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $50 −$8 -16%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $100 −$66 -66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $25 33m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 3¢ $12 33m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 6¢ $25 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 31¢ $46 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $50 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $79 2h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 62¢ $50 3h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? SELL Yes 5¢ $32 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 48¢ $50 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 52¢ $100 3h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 17¢ $78 3h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 20¢ $100 3h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 22¢ $50 3h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 32¢ $50 3h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 31¢ $100 3h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 34¢ $77 3h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 61¢ $87 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 12¢ $64 4h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? SELL Yes 15¢ $42 4h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? SELL Yes 5¢ $34 4h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 69¢ $100 4h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 14¢ $100 4h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 14¢ $50 4h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $50 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 36¢ $100 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 36¢ $100 5h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 43¢ $100 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.17 · official $41.22 · 29 history records