Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:31:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
B0 0xb05b…1c1a other 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL −$34 (-14%) realized −$34 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip
Net edge+11%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit15%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% +$43
sports 8% −$20
crypto 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +22.9% +11.2% 50% 50% +7.2%
≤30d 6 +22.9% +11.2% 50% 50% +7.2%
≤90d 6 +22.9% +11.2% 50% 50% +7.2%
all 6 +22.9% +11.2% 50% 50% +7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.2% 50% +7.2%
10% +0.6% 50% -3.1%
15% -9.2% 50% -12.5%
20% -18.1% 50% -21.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 86% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$11 · ×1.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.69 per $1 lost it wins $1.69
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 13
History coverage6d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit15%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $50 +$36 +73%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $30 −$4 -12%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5 +$8 +155%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 +$12 +121%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $15.67 · 17 history records