Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T15:26:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B0 0xb053…32aa politics 77 markets active 1h ago coverage 635d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate1%1W / 76L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$230per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 76% −$13
other 22% −$4
sports 1% $0
tech 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
economics 0% $0
weather 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 3 +0.0% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 8 -0.0% -9.5% 12% 0% -9.5%
all 77 -1.8% -11.2% 1% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 0% -9.6%
10% -19.7% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.5% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.7 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

635d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)1%
Wins / losses1 / 76
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)77 / 77
History coverage635d
Avg bet$230
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 77 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 24 $52 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $52 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 30 $52 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? May 18 $52 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $52 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 06 $52 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $53 $0 +0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 30 $53 $0 +0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Mar 23 $53 $0 +0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 17 $53 $0 +0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 14 $53 $0 +0%
Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 13 $53 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 12 $53 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 07 $53 $0 +0%
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio Feb 25 $53 $0 +0%
Will Burnley win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 06 $52 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. collect between $500b and $1t in revenue in 2025? Nov 24 $52 $0 -0%
Will another player be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Trump declassifies Epstein list in first 100 days? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Cade Cunningham lead the NBA in Assists? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ajax win the UEFA Europa League? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will DeMar DeRozan lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Aston Villa finish in the top 4 of EPL? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Club Brugge win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Manchester City wins the Premier League? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after January 2025 meeting? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Meissner effect confirmed near room temperature? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Avail airdrop in 2024? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trevor Lawrence win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will John Barrasso be the next Senate Majority Leader? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Mark Andrews be the top Fantasy Tight End? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will Dak Prescott be the top Fantasy Quarterback? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will Nicolae Ciucă advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runof Dec 20 $0 $0 -2%
Will Dyson Daniels win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? Dec 20 $0 $0 -5%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Dec 20 $1 $0 -1%
Will Arch Manning win the Heisman Trophy? Dec 20 $4 $0 +0%
Will Bayern Munich win the Bundesliga? Dec 10 $1 $0 -3%
Doug Burgum confirmed as Secretary of the Interior? Dec 10 $0 $0 -2%
Will Marco Rubio be a member of the Trump administration? Dec 10 $1 $0 -3%
Will Russia capture Chasiv Yar before December? Dec 10 $3 $0 +0%
Hunter Biden sentenced to over 10 years in gun case? Dec 10 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Raiders win Super Bowl 2025? Nov 26 $0 $0 -0%
Will RB Leipzig win the UEFA Champions League? Nov 26 $1 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Nov 26 $0 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. for Agriculture Secretary? Nov 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will Lando Norris win the 2024 Las Vegas Grand Prix? Nov 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will George Simion win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? Nov 18 $0 $0 -4%
Will Heung-Min Son be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Nov 18 $0 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $52 1h
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $52 24h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $52 7d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $52 7d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 100¢ $52 24d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 100¢ $52 25d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $52 36d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $4 37d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $48 37d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $52 45d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $52 46d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $52 49d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $52 49d
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $53 71d
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $32 71d
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $21 71d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $53 85d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $6 86d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $47 86d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $53 92d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $53 93d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $53 99d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $53 99d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? SELL No 100¢ $53 101d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 100¢ $53 102d
Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 99¢ $53 103d
Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 99¢ $53 103d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $53 104d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $53 104d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $53 109d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 163 history records