Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:51:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B0 0xb052…7ada sports 1151 markets active 2h ago coverage 231d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,503 (-3%) realized −$2,566 · open +$63
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate46%525W / 607L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Fees−$491est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$696now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$83
7 days+$138
14 days−$1,110
30 days−$1,534
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% −$2,275
other 16% −$79
world 3% −$21
economics 2% −$5
politics 2% −$54
finance 1% +$34
crypto 0% −$175
tech 0% −$31
weather 0% −$14
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +13.7% +2.8% 57% 57% -0.1%
≤30d 236 -13.7% -21.9% 42% 42% -14.8%
≤90d 775 -36.8% -42.8% 33% 31% -26.1%
all 1132 -7.5% -16.3% 46% 41% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.3% 41% -12.2%
10% -24.3% 40% -20.6%
15% -31.6% 39% -28.3%
20% -38.3% 38% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +14% → late -29% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$47 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

231d coverage
Net worth$696
Realized−$2,566
Unrealized+$63
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses525 / 607
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$491
Open positions8
Markets (closed)1132 / 1151
History coverage231d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 1132 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winner Nongshim Esports Academy 56¢ 100¢ $115 $205 +$90 (+78%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 100¢ $200 $201 +$1 (+0%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Aurora Gaming 56¢ 56¢ $135 $134 −$1 (-1%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 96¢ 98¢ $120 $122 +$2 (+2%)
Game Handicap: NS.EA (-1.5) vs KT Rolster Challengers (+1.5) Nongshim Esports Academy 43¢ 22¢ $55 $29 −$26 (-48%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+12%)
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-75%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 203 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 AND England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 AND Wi Jun 18 $99 +$272 +275%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $137 −$135 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $86 −$85 -99%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $137 −$135 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $157 −$155 -99%
ITF Milano: Federico Iannaccone vs Petr Nesterov Jun 15 $56 +$42 +76%
Zandschulp vs. Wendelken: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 15 $96 −$95 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $122 +$118 +97%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 15 $36 +$52 +146%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $8 +$6 +76%
Shevchenko vs. Daniel: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 14 $66 −$65 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $66 +$26 +40%
Scotland leading at halftime? Jun 14 $66 +$69 +105%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) Jun 14 $137 −$135 -99%
1H Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 14 $158 +$135 +85%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 14 $96 +$71 +73%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 14 $76 −$75 -98%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 13 $86 −$85 -98%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 174.5 Jun 13 $56 −$55 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $66 +$37 +57%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $56 +$29 +52%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $132 +$113 +86%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $127 +$185 +146%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Hynek Barton Jun 11 $16 −$16 -99%
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 11 $127 +$128 +101%
Bolivia vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $66 −$65 -99%
Will SC Recife win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $147 −$145 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 11 $127 −$125 -99%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $87 −$87 -100%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $127 +$123 +97%
ITF Vaasa: Vesa Ahti vs Rafael Ymer Jun 10 $66 −$65 -99%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 10 $137 −$14 -10%
Will Venezuela win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $76 +$98 +129%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $127 −$125 -98%
Liberia vs. Sierra Leone: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $86 +$88 +102%
Spread: Hungary (-1.5) Jun 09 $137 +$113 +83%
England vs. Ukraine: O/U 5.5 Jun 09 $126 −$7 -6%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 09 $66 −$65 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) Jun 09 $168 +$216 +129%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 Jun 09 $76 +$71 +93%
Will Mauritania win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $25 +$39 +152%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $2 +$1 +26%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $57 −$3 -6%
Jacquemot vs. Guo: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 07 $127 −$125 -99%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 07 $248 −$248 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 07 $167 −$167 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 07 $213 −$213 -100%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-3.5) Jun 07 $167 −$167 -100%
Kamatamare Sanuki vs. AC Nagano Parceiro: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $168 −$168 -100%
Will Angola win on 2026-06-05? Jun 07 $147 −$147 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Game Handicap: NS.EA (-1.5) vs KT Rolster Challengers (+1.5) BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 43¢ $56 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 56¢ $117 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 56¢ $137 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Sprea BUY 8¢ $57 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 AND Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to BUY 14¢ $36 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 AND England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 AND Wi SELL 92¢ $371 10h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 AND England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 AND Wi BUY 24¢ $99 25h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $137 30h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $86 34h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 49¢ $137 34h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) AND Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Iraq vs. BUY 7¢ $26 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 63¢ $157 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Aus BUY 8¢ $36 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 AND IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 AND Sa BUY 39¢ $66 2d
Zandschulp vs. Wendelken: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Under 51¢ $96 3d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Argentina vs. Al BUY 1¢ $15 3d
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 AND Spread BUY 4¢ $15 3d
ITF Milano: Federico Iannaccone vs Petr Nesterov BUY Petr Nesterov 56¢ $56 3d
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) BUY Sweden 40¢ $36 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 50¢ $122 3d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 56¢ $8 3d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Wil BUY 6¢ $26 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Germany (-3.5) AND Belgium vs. BUY 2¢ $15 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Germany (-3.5) AND Spread: Spa BUY 1¢ $15 4d
Shevchenko vs. Daniel: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Under 53¢ $66 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner SELL Gen.G 88¢ $92 4d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Wil BUY 17¢ $67 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 62¢ $66 4d
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) BUY Gen.G 52¢ $137 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 SELL Under 95¢ $167 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $695.54 · official $785.54 · 2512 history records