Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T22:46:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
B0 0xb04c…6b8e sports 6 markets active 1d ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$945 (-88%) realized −$945 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -74% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -78% what you keep after slip
Net edge-78%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$179per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$950
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-76.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -74.3% -76.7% 0% 0% -90.5%
≤30d 6 -74.3% -76.7% 0% 0% -90.5%
≤90d 6 -74.3% -76.7% 0% 0% -90.5%
all 6 -74.3% -76.7% 0% 0% -90.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -76.7% 0% -90.5%
10% -79.0% 0% -91.4%
15% -81.0% 0% -92.3%
20% -82.9% 0% -93.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -90% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -74% · $-wt -90% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$158 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$945
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 6
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$179
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $79 −$78 -98%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $145 −$95 -66%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 26 $33 −$4 -12%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $101 −$69 -68%
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) Jun 26 $465 −$458 -98%
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $250 −$247 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 41¢ $79 26h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 27¢ $50 26h
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL France 33¢ $29 26h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 36¢ $33 26h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 18¢ $32 26h
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) BUY Iraq 46¢ $262 26h
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) BUY Iraq 46¢ $203 26h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 76¢ $145 27h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 56¢ $101 27h
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 59¢ $250 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 10 history records