Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:48:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B0 0xb04c…5da3 other 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 169d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$459 (-62%) realized −$458 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate67%10W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$144now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$158
30 days−$201
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% −$441
other 25% −$1
tech 6% $0
politics 5% −$9
weather 2% −$4
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-39.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 -66.3% -69.5% 33% 0% -94.9%
≤90d 9 -32.7% -39.1% 67% 0% -87.5%
all 15 -32.8% -39.2% 67% 0% -79.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.2% 0% -79.7%
10% -45.1% 0% -81.6%
15% -50.4% 0% -83.4%
20% -55.2% 0% -85.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 44% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -86% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -78% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late -37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$91 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

169d coverage
Net worth$144
Realized−$458
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses10 / 5
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage169d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $146 $144 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $160 −$158 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 20 $44 −$44 -98%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai? May 20 $12 $0 +1%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 18 $246 −$240 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on March 3? Apr 18 $11 $0 +0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 7, 2026 (ET)? Apr 18 $11 $0 +2%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,800 by end of February? Apr 18 $11 $0 +2%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 18 $12 $0 +0%
Will January 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record? Apr 18 $13 $0 +1%
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? Mar 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.24ºC in February 2026? Mar 02 $4 −$4 -100%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor dip to $2.50 in January? Feb 02 $15 $0 +1%
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Jan 20 $16 $0 +1%
Will Google (GOOGL) hit $375 before 2026?? Jan 06 $17 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $144.38 · official $144.38 (match) · 26 history records