Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:54:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B0 0xb04a…fe33 other 68 markets active 2h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$71 (-13%) realized −$72 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate48%30W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days+$30
14 days−$13
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% +$22
sports 32% −$95
economics 6% $0
tech 5% +$2
world 4% −$5
politics 3% −$1
crypto 1% +$2
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +19.7% +8.3% 63% 63% +15.8%
≤30d 50 -2.3% -11.6% 56% 50% -13.3%
≤90d 63 -8.6% -17.3% 48% 40% -23.4%
all 63 -8.6% -17.3% 48% 40% -23.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.3% 40% -23.4%
10% -25.2% 40% -30.7%
15% -32.4% 33% -37.4%
20% -39.1% 27% -43.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$72
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses30 / 33
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)63 / 68
History coverage58d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 49¢ 50¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 19¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+4%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 55¢ 58¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 89¢ 85¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $18 +$10 +53%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $5 +$3 +55%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $3 −$2 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5 +$7 +129%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $7 +$4 +55%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$5 +53%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 +$4 +70%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 +$4 +73%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 +$3 +60%
Will CF Universidad de Chile win on 2026-05-23? Jun 19 $2 +$3 +139%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -98%
Will CF Universidad de Chile vs. O'Higgins FC end in a draw? Jun 19 $2 −$1 -44%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 +$3 +57%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $11 +$4 +39%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 +$7 +237%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $11 +$5 +45%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +48%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $12 +$11 +93%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $11 −$3 -30%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will CD Universidad Católica win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $6 +$4 +54%
Will CSD Colo-Colo win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +29%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $3 $0 +1%
Will Everton de Viña del Mar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $6 −$5 -98%
Will CD Palestino win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$1 -18%
Will CD Coquimbo Unido win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$2 +43%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -90%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $11 +$4 +34%
Will Audax CS Italiano win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $30 −$21 -68%
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting? Jun 11 $28 $0 +1%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Ju Jun 11 $4 $0 +3%
Will CD Palestino vs. Audax CS Italiano end in a draw? Jun 01 $11 +$3 +30%
Will CD Palestino win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $17 −$17 -98%
Will CD Universidad Católica win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $10 +$11 +112%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 31 $3 +$1 +24%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $10 +$9 +86%
Will CSD Colo-Colo win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $4 +$5 +114%
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-05-28? May 29 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Club Olimpia win on 2026-05-27? May 28 $12 +$7 +61%
Will Audax CS Italiano win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $7 −$4 -62%
Will Oklahoma City Thunder advance to the 2026 NBA Finals? May 27 $14 −$14 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $28 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 14h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 26h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 50¢ $6 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 49¢ $6 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 55¢ $5 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 65¢ $8 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $5 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $7 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $9 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $5 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 4d
Will CF Universidad de Chile win on 2026-05-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 5d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 40¢ $4 5d
Will CF Universidad de Chile vs. O'Higgins FC end in a draw? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 5d
Will CF Universidad de Chile win on 2026-05-23? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 5d
Will CF Universidad de Chile vs. O'Higgins FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 5d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $4 6d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $4 6d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 6d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 6d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $5 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $3 7d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $4 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.70 · official $33.70 (match) · 215 history records