Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T20:44:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

B0
0xb04a…acfc
world · 317 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$3,037 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$2,901 · open −$111
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY world specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$6,794
Realized+$2,901
Unrealized−$111
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses133 / 133
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions62
Markets (closed)266 / 317
History coverage65d
Avg bet$216
Trades / day51.0
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit90%
Chart Positions 62 History 266 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$66
7 days−$95
14 days−$683
30 days+$1,090
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No 57¢ 66¢ $603 $706 +$103 (+17%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No 83¢ 87¢ $538 $563 +$25 (+5%)
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by June 30? No 95¢ 97¢ $515 $523 +$8 (+2%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? No 66¢ 68¢ $433 $440 +$7 (+2%)
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? No 88¢ 90¢ $370 $376 +$6 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? No 32¢ 32¢ $360 $355 −$4 (-1%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 64¢ 58¢ $373 $341 −$32 (-9%)
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? No 83¢ 79¢ $349 $332 −$17 (-5%)
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $314 $321 +$7 (+2%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 61¢ 79¢ $232 $301 +$69 (+30%)
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 96¢ $223 $221 −$2 (-1%)
Will Trump and Putin not meet? Yes 93¢ 99¢ $180 $191 +$11 (+6%)
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 90¢ $185 $185 +$0 (+0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? No 93¢ 84¢ $195 $176 −$19 (-10%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? No 25¢ 14¢ $272 $160 −$112 (-41%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $163 $157 −$7 (-4%)
Will Israel annex Gaza territory by June 30 2026? No 97¢ 99¢ $150 $153 +$3 (+2%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? No 92¢ 92¢ $111 $111 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 61¢ 56¢ $117 $106 −$11 (-9%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? No 73¢ 68¢ $97 $91 −$6 (-6%)
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? No 70¢ 69¢ $84 $83 −$1 (-1%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? Yes 30¢ 31¢ $78 $80 +$3 (+3%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Yes 17¢ 24¢ $58 $80 +$22 (+38%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 39¢ 40¢ $77 $79 +$1 (+1%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Yes 26¢ 59¢ $33 $75 +$42 (+127%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the June Jun 14 $11 −$5 -43%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $160 −$44 -27%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $21 −$2 -12%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? Jun 14 $273 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 14 $8 +$10 +122%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 14 $58 −$2 -3%
Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31? Jun 14 $45 +$3 +7%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $21 $0 -1%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States? Jun 13 $30 −$20 -67%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? Jun 13 $51 −$7 -13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $6 +$1 +13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 12 $76 −$3 -4%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $63 +$3 +4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 12 $19 −$1 -4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? Jun 12 $26 −$4 -16%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 11 $49 +$2 +4%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $338 +$20 +6%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 10 $38 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $254 −$15 -6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 08 $55 −$8 -15%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $14 −$1 -7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 07 $32 −$22 -69%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $223 −$185 -83%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 07 $32 −$12 -36%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 07 $156 +$345 +221%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 07 $226 −$214 -95%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 07 $204 −$25 -12%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $218 −$17 -8%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $58 −$12 -21%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $465 −$208 -45%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $274 −$123 -45%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 05 $299 −$139 -46%
Will Trump resign before 2027? Jun 04 $45 +$118 +263%
Will Trump speak to Reza Pahlavi in May? Jun 04 $179 +$1 +1%
Will Kylian Mbappe leave Real Madrid before August 31? Jun 04 $67 −$1 -2%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 03 $150 −$2 -1%
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $26 +$59 +225%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 02 $127 −$120 -95%
Will Lionel Messi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $105 −$3 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 02 $202 −$202 -100%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30? Jun 02 $53 +$2 +4%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $151 +$122 +80%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? Jun 02 $352 +$21 +6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? Jun 02 $248 −$23 -9%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pope Leo XIV by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $188 −$1 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $393 +$13 +3%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Jun 01 $498 +$17 +4%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 01 $305 $0 -0%
Will Trump speak to Masoud Pezeshkian in June? May 31 $206 −$7 -3%
Will Trump speak to Reza Pahlavi in June? May 31 $109 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 75% +$751
politics 9% +$1,045
finance 7% +$362
other 6% +$386
sports 1% +$193
crypto 1% +$57
economics 0% $0
tech 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the June SELL Yes 5¢ $6 57m
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the June BUY Yes 9¢ $11 57m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 16¢ $26 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL No 20¢ $12 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? SELL No 14¢ $18 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL No 17¢ $1 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL No 17¢ $10 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY No 16¢ $21 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY No 46¢ $22 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY No 46¢ $33 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL No 45¢ $54 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY No 52¢ $43 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY No 52¢ $6 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY No 52¢ $13 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 18¢ $11 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 19¢ $22 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 18¢ $46 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 19¢ $49 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL No 61¢ $40 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY No 64¢ $42 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 21¢ $27 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 20¢ $26 2h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? SELL No 97¢ $45 2h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? SELL No 97¢ $30 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 24¢ $6 3h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY Yes 28¢ $34 3h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 30¢ $36 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 40¢ $17 3h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 30¢ $33 3h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 42¢ $16 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+21.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -5.9% -14.9% 32% 9% -14.8%
≤30d 120 +10.5% -0.0% 42% 19% -4.6%
≤90d 266 +34.4% +21.6% 50% 29% -4.6%
all 266 +34.4% +21.6% 50% 29% -4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover51.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +21.6% 29% -4.6%
10% ← realistic here +10.0% 23% -13.8%
15% -0.7% 19% -22.1%
20% -10.4% 16% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,793.77 · official $6,793.55 (match) · 3500 history records