Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T10:39:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B0 0xb04a…1a28 politics 105 markets active 2h ago coverage 113d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$347 (+0%) realized +$348 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate17%17W / 86L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,029per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$1,255now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$13
30 days−$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 45% −$58
other 36% −$32
sports 13% +$418
world 3% −$6
culture 2% −$2
crypto 1% −$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 23 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 57 +1.7% -8.0% 7% 2% -8.6%
all 103 -3.7% -12.9% 17% 12% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 12% -9.3%
10% -21.2% 11% -17.9%
15% -28.8% 9% -25.9%
20% -35.8% 8% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 70% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,582) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -9% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$78 vs −$12 · ×6.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$1,255
Realized+$348
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses17 / 86
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions2
Markets (closed)103 / 105
History coverage113d
Avg bet$1,029
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $811 $810 −$0 (-0%)
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $445 $445 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $1,984 −$2 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $376 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 19 $208 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $301 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $1,511 −$2 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $1,322 −$2 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $1,604 −$2 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $2,937 −$3 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,582 −$3 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1,592 −$3 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,641 −$3 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $1,585 −$2 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $2,653 −$3 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $2,709 −$4 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $2,755 −$3 -0%
Will Solana reach $150 in May? Jun 04 $75 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 04 $97 $0 +0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $3,954 −$5 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $1,643 −$2 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 28 $1,397 −$2 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 28 $1,562 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 28 $1,178 −$2 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $1,529 −$2 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $1,242 −$2 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $1,353 −$2 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $1,354 −$2 -0%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 21 $843 +$851 +101%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $1,603 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $687 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $716 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $717 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 07 $713 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $813 −$1 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $818 −$1 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 05 $914 −$1 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $880 −$1 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $865 −$1 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 20 $857 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $851 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $2,969 −$3 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $968 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $1,894 −$2 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $1,719 −$2 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $942 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $862 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $2,489 −$2 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $761 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $922 −$1 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $867 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 10 $2,304 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $445 1h
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $426 6d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $426 6d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $375 6d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $376 6d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $207 6d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $208 6d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $300 7d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $301 7d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $811 8d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,508 10d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,511 11d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,320 12d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,322 13d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,602 13d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,604 13d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,426 13d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,428 13d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,579 16d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,582 17d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,589 18d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,592 18d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,639 19d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,641 19d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,583 20d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,585 20d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,305 20d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,307 20d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,458 21d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,460 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,255.11 · official $1,255.11 (match) · 359 history records