Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:31:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
B0 0xb048…a6ee crypto 126 markets active 0h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$30 (+2%) realized +$30 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate71%89W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$85now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$32
7 days−$35
14 days−$52
30 days−$52
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$52
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 115 -0.5% -10.0% 71% 69% -11.5%
≤30d 126 +2.0% -7.7% 71% 67% -12.1%
≤90d 126 +2.0% -7.7% 71% 67% -12.1%
all 126 +2.0% -7.7% 71% 67% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 67% -12.1%
10% -16.5% 52% -20.5%
15% -24.6% 34% -28.2%
20% -32.0% 17% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$14 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$85
Realized+$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses89 / 37
Open positions0
Markets (closed)126 / 126
History coverage16d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 126 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 23 $51 +$18 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 23 $6 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 23 $27 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 23 $33 +$6 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 23 $51 +$12 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 22 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 22 $6 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 22 $31 +$11 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 22 $51 +$16 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 22 $6 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 22 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 22 $20 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 22 $20 +$8 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 22 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 22 $20 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 22 $9 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 22 $13 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 22 $20 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 22 $3 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 22 $20 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 22 $20 +$7 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 22 $21 +$23 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 21 $0 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 21 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 21 $17 +$35 +212%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$4 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$5 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $51 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $28 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $31 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $51 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $6 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $6 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $51 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $20 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $20 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $7 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $20 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $8 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $13 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $10 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $9 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $20 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $20 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $3 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84.95 · official $84.33 (match) · 250 history records