Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:27:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B0 0xb047…e610 crypto 79 markets active 2h ago coverage 113d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$612 (-14%) realized −$608 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate53%41W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$66now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$99
7 days−$409
14 days−$510
30 days−$510
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 47% −$124
other 37% −$304
sports 12% −$88
world 5% −$147
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-29.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -21.1% -28.6% 51% 36% -26.4%
≤30d 57 -24.2% -31.4% 49% 37% -27.8%
≤90d 76 -20.7% -28.3% 54% 34% -21.8%
all 77 -21.8% -29.2% 53% 34% -23.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.2% 34% -23.6%
10% -36.0% 25% -30.9%
15% -42.2% 19% -37.6%
20% -47.8% 16% -43.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$39 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$66
Realized−$608
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses41 / 36
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)77 / 79
History coverage113d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 66¢ $60 $56 −$4 (-6%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $242 −$49 -20%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $81 −$78 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $61 −$47 -78%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $140 +$12 +8%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $130 +$16 +12%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $20 +$11 +55%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $121 +$33 +27%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $120 +$5 +4%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $101 +$33 +32%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $10 +$7 +73%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 +$8 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $50 +$3 +5%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 17 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 17 $51 +$8 +16%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $71 −$71 -100%
Portugal to score first vs. DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 +$3 +27%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $61 +$32 +52%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$11 +105%
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $50 +$2 +3%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $30 +$3 +9%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 +$32 +316%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$20 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$1 +3%
Uruguay to score first vs. Saudi Arabia? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $81 +$74 +92%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $31 −$29 -94%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $71 −$59 -84%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$45 +89%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$2 +9%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $30 +$17 +57%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $41 +$39 +97%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $61 1h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 96¢ $20 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 89¢ $50 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 88¢ $30 22h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 81¢ $10 22h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 81¢ $10 22h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 77¢ $10 22h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 8¢ $14 22h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 72¢ $20 22h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 41¢ $20 22h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 22h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 17¢ $33 23h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $20 23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 40¢ $20 23h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 92¢ $20 26h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 26h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 92¢ $120 26h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 88¢ $30 44h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $153 44h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $20 44h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 44h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 79¢ $20 46h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 78¢ $101 46h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 96¢ $120 2d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.64 · official $65.64 (match) · 186 history records