Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T13:00:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

B0
0xb046…d3d1
sports · 789 markets active 1h ago
1.0score
−$124 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$111 · open −$21
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$260
Realized−$111
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses497 / 254
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions38
Markets (closed)751 / 789
History coverage646d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%
Chart Positions 38 History 751 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$25
14 days+$4
30 days+$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-0%)
GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 84¢ 84¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-1%)
Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes 79¢ 88¢ $28 $31 +$3 (+11%)
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 58¢ 67¢ $26 $29 +$4 (+15%)
GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes 62¢ 50¢ $35 $28 −$7 (-19%)
GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes 43¢ 30¢ $28 $20 −$8 (-29%)
Will GRVT launch a token by September 30, 2026? Yes 89¢ 89¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+1%)
GRVT FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 23¢ 20¢ $7 $7 −$1 (-10%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 80¢ 90¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+12%)
Reya FDV above $70M one day after launch? Yes 81¢ 59¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-27%)
Reya FDV above $150M one day after launch? Yes 65¢ 16¢ $11 $3 −$8 (-76%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 95¢ 98¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 81¢ 82¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 74¢ 72¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 94¢ 88¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 86¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
GRVT FDV above $1B one day after launch? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $78 +$16 +20%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $2 +$1 +42%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +57%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $28 −$6 -23%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 +$1 +52%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 14 $12 +$1 +11%
Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jun 14 $5 $0 -3%
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jun 14 $10 −$1 -11%
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $15 −$4 -28%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 $0 +44%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +97%
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire Jun 12 $5 +$1 +17%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $12 +$6 +45%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 +$1 +42%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $1 $0 +17%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $1 $0 +27%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $1 $0 +29%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $19 −$2 -9%
Will Azerbaijan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $1 $0 +13%
Will Indonesia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $1 $0 +36%
Will Philippines win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $1 +$1 +55%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $2 $0 +18%
Will Togo win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $1 +$2 +172%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 10 $1 +$2 +172%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $3 +$1 +28%
Will Angola win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $3 +$1 +43%
Will Russia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $4 $0 +8%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Ethiopia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Armenia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Tajikistan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Equatorial Guinea vs. Comoros end in a draw? Jun 09 $1 $0 +6%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $2 $0 +14%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $2 $0 +18%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $2 +$1 +25%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $6 +$7 +114%
Will Hong Kong SAR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -99%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Vanuatu win on 2026-06-09? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 08 $1 $0 +12%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $1 $0 +18%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $1 $0 +21%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $1 +$1 +73%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $2 +$1 +38%
Will Kosovo win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $7 +$1 +19%
Will Cyprus win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $16 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 53% −$110
sports 26% −$9
finance 7% +$14
crypto 6% −$12
economics 3% −$13
politics 2% +$2
tech 2% +$4
world 1% −$6
culture 0% −$4
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $40 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 1h
GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 1h
GRVT FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 1h
GRVT FDV above $800M one day after launch? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 1h
GRVT FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 1h
GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 84¢ $30 1h
GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 84¢ $12 9h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 98¢ $38 9h
GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL Yes 83¢ $39 9h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 98¢ $14 9h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 96¢ $13 9h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 98¢ $5 9h
Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL Yes 26¢ $5 9h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 61¢ $6 9h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 38¢ $6 9h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 87¢ $15 9h
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? SELL Yes 47¢ $9 9h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 43¢ $6 9h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 74¢ $12 10h
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 63¢ $11 10h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 78¢ $5 10h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $5 24h
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? SELL Yes 66¢ $10 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 +12.1% +1.5% 76% 70% -1.6%
≤30d 130 +1.3% -8.3% 68% 53% -3.2%
≤90d 202 -0.3% -9.8% 63% 51% -10.4%
all 751 -6.0% -15.0% 66% 51% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 51% -12.2%
10% -23.1% 36% -20.6%
15% -30.5% 24% -28.3%
20% -37.4% 15% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $260.17 · official $260.18 (match) · 1582 history records