Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:15:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B0 0xb043…2323 other 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 316d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate21%8W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 36% $0
other 33% −$2
world 19% −$3
sports 6% $0
weather 4% $0
economics 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 11 -0.5% -10.0% 9% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 11 -0.5% -10.0% 9% 0% -10.5%
all 38 -0.6% -10.1% 21% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

316d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses8 / 30
Open positions0
Markets (closed)38 / 38
History coverage316d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 38 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $41 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $41 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 02 $2 $0 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 01 $31 −$2 -7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 31 $37 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $4 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 30 $52 $0 -1%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 30 $1 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $40 $0 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Aug 19 $33 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out before October? Aug 15 $32 $0 +1%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Aug 14 $6 $0 -2%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 12 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 12 $2 $0 -4%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 12 $3 $0 -2%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Aug 12 $61 $0 +0%
Will Seán Kelly win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 12 $66 $0 +0%
Will Ben Griffin win the 2025 FedEx St. Jude Championship? Aug 12 $8 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $6200 in August? Aug 11 $9 $0 -1%
Will Elon tweet 455–469 times August 8–August 15? Aug 11 $16 −$1 -6%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in August? Aug 11 $68 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 11 $75 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Aug 11 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 79-80°F on August 11 Aug 11 $18 $0 -1%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 10 $76 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 10 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Scott Bessent as next Fed Chair in 2025? Aug 10 $9 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Aug 10 $92 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 82-83°F on August 9? Aug 09 $9 $0 +1%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 08 $9 $0 +0%
Will Fergus Finlay win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 07 $119 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 78°F or higher on August 7? Aug 06 $20 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Aug 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the best domestic opening weekend in Aug 06 $69 −$2 -2%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% in 2025? Aug 06 $0 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $41 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $41 2h
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $7 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $7 15d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $41 15d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $41 15d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 38¢ $29 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 41¢ $18 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 41¢ $8 16d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 100¢ $2 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $37 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $37 17d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 17d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 18d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $2 18d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $14 18d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $6 18d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 44¢ $19 18d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 18d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 19d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 19d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 19d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $33 19d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $4 19d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 44¢ $12 19d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 44¢ $18 19d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $32 19d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $9 19d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $40 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 122 history records