Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T19:03:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
B0 0xb043…9d41 other 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 20d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$217 (+69%) realized +$216 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +75% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +58% what you keep after slip
Net edge+58%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate73%11W / 4L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days+$12
14 days+$68
30 days+$206
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% +$77
culture 11% +$130
world 6% $0
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+58.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +15.5% +4.5% 75% 50% +3.8%
≤30d 15 +74.9% +58.2% 73% 53% +55.7%
≤90d 15 +74.9% +58.2% 73% 53% +55.7%
all 15 +74.9% +58.2% 73% 53% +55.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +58.2% 53% +55.7%
10% +43.1% 53% +40.8%
15% +29.3% 53% +27.2%
20% +16.6% 53% +14.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 54% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +72% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +75% · $-wt +72% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +103% → late +51% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$12 · ×1.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.43 per $1 lost it wins $5.43
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized+$216
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses11 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage20d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Yes 58¢ 60¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $25 +$15 +60%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 20 $23 +$22 +95%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $26 +$23 +91%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $20 +$19 +91%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $16 +$14 +92%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $41 +$28 +69%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3 Jun 07 $20 +$22 +108%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $20 $0 -2%
Will MrBeast's next video get 64 million or more views in week 1? Jun 06 $21 −$20 -96%
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 48m and 52m? Jun 06 $15 +$108 +709%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 05 $7 −$1 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 05 $7 $0 +6%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 04 $15 +$1 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $26 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $5 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 29h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 62¢ $12 46h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 62¢ $13 46h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $23 5d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $26 7d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $49 7d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $26 9d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $39 9d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 12d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 12d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? SELL Yes 77¢ $20 14d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? SELL Yes 77¢ $26 14d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? SELL Yes 77¢ $5 14d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? SELL Yes 77¢ $1 14d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? SELL Yes 77¢ $18 14d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $20 15d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 15d
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3 SELL Yes 27¢ $25 15d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 15d
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3 SELL Yes 25¢ $4 15d
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3 SELL Yes 22¢ $13 15d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $20 15d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $20 15d
Will MrBeast's next video get 64 million or more views in week 1? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 16d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 16d
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3 BUY Yes 12¢ $20 16d
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 48m and 52m? SELL Yes 39¢ $124 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.08 · official $26.08 (match) · 39 history records