Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:52:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B0 0xb03e…1091 sports 780 markets active 2h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$637 (+2%) realized +$619 · open +$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate70%504W / 218L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day26.5pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$2,606now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$51
7 days+$79
14 days+$108
30 days−$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% −$53
other 17% +$66
sports 12% +$235
tech 11% +$125
finance 8% +$108
politics 5% +$61
crypto 2% −$32
culture 1% +$24
weather 1% +$6
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +10.2% -0.3% 84% 28% -3.3%
≤30d 280 +0.3% -9.3% 67% 18% -9.8%
≤90d 659 -2.3% -11.6% 68% 27% -8.5%
all 722 -2.1% -11.4% 70% 27% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.4% 27% -8.3%
10% ← realistic here -19.9% 16% -17.1%
15% -27.6% 9% -25.1%
20% -34.7% 3% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$2,606
Realized+$619
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses504 / 218
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions58
Markets (closed)722 / 780
History coverage100d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day26.5
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 58 History 722 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
GTA 6 launch postponed again? No 76¢ 81¢ $743 $792 +$49 (+7%)
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 91¢ $258 $247 −$12 (-4%)
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? Yes 85¢ 80¢ $244 $231 −$13 (-5%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? No 97¢ 99¢ $180 $184 +$4 (+2%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $131 $128 −$3 (-2%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? No 76¢ 96¢ $96 $121 +$25 (+26%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Yes 93¢ 89¢ $115 $110 −$5 (-4%)
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 70% and 75%? Yes 99¢ 96¢ $69 $67 −$2 (-3%)
Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? Yes 81¢ 76¢ $65 $61 −$4 (-5%)
Will FURIA make a roster change before July? No 88¢ 86¢ $61 $60 −$1 (-2%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? No 92¢ 96¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+4%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 72¢ 80¢ $46 $52 +$6 (+12%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 80¢ 88¢ $45 $50 +$5 (+10%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Yes 71¢ 98¢ $35 $48 +$13 (+37%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? Yes 71¢ 62¢ $35 $30 −$5 (-13%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? No 97¢ 97¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in June? No 80¢ 80¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $27 $27 −$1 (-2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 75¢ 90¢ $22 $26 +$4 (+20%)
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027? No 47¢ 46¢ $25 $24 −$0 (-2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 43¢ 100¢ $10 $23 +$13 (+132%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in June? No 91¢ 92¢ $21 $21 +$0 (+1%)
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Yes 90¢ 46¢ $34 $17 −$17 (-49%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 88¢ 90¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+3%)
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Yes 84¢ 79¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $220 on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 17 $45 +$13 +28%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 17 $20 +$13 +67%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June? Jun 17 $20 +$1 +4%
Will Pizza Hut be acquired before 2027? Jun 17 $162 +$2 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 17 $276 +$8 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 16 $55 +$2 +4%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 16 $279 +$11 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 15 $107 −$3 -3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 15 $20 +$5 +27%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $15 +$6 +41%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
New COVID variant of concern before 2027? Jun 13 $6 $0 -0%
Will Natus Vincere qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 13 $1 $0 -26%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? Jun 13 $5 −$2 -32%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $3 +$2 +64%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $10 +$1 +7%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 12 $6 $0 +3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $5 $0 +10%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
Will Planet Fitness be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 1 Jun 12 $6 $0 +1%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $79 +$16 +20%
US x Cuba military clash in 2026? Jun 12 $10 $0 +3%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Will Oracle (ORCL) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 10 $7 +$1 +17%
OpenAI IPO before 2027? Jun 10 $229 −$6 -3%
Anthropic IPO before 2027? Jun 10 $32 +$3 +9%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 09 $4 +$1 +19%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 09 $13 +$2 +15%
SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027? Jun 09 $861 +$22 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $5 $0 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in June? Jun 09 $41 +$1 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? Jun 09 $30 +$1 +3%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 12? Jun 09 $16 −$16 -99%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 09 $208 +$9 +4%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $300 on June 8? Jun 08 $1 $0 +2%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $1 $0 +8%
Will SpaceX IPO on June 30, 2026 or later? Jun 08 $10 $0 +2%
Will Olivia Rodrigo release an album in 2026? Jun 08 $37 $0 +0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $35 −$4 -11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 08 $16 $0 +1%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $5 −$3 -58%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $10 +$1 +8%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 07 $15 +$6 +39%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 07 $10 $0 +4%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $10 +$4 +37%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 07 $40 −$7 -17%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 07 $141 −$6 -4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 07 $235 +$5 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
GTA 6 launch postponed again? BUY No 81¢ $8 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 91¢ $1 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 91¢ $1 3h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in June? BUY No 92¢ $1 3h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? BUY No 97¢ $30 3h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in June? BUY No 80¢ $1 3h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? BUY No 49¢ $1 3h
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 84¢ $15 3h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY No 92¢ $5 3h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY No 90¢ $1 3h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $1 3h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 78¢ $1 4h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? BUY No 96¢ $1 4h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 87¢ $5 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $42 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $33 5h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $7 6h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $5 6h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in June? BUY No 77¢ $3 6h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? BUY No 42¢ $1 6h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in June? BUY No 89¢ $5 6h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June? SELL No 99¢ $21 6h
GTA VI released before November 2026? BUY No 96¢ $1 6h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 83¢ $5 6h
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $5 6h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 83¢ $5 7h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $50 8h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $100 9h
Will Pizza Hut be acquired before 2027? SELL Yes 100¢ $65 9h
Will Pizza Hut be acquired before 2027? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,606.20 · official $2,605.78 (match) · 2964 history records