Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T23:04:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
B0 0xb035…d7cd sports 90 markets active 1h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$513 (-4%) realized −$510 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%35W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$134per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$208est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$297now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$463
7 days+$996
14 days+$322
30 days−$595
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$598
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +38.8% +25.5% 62% 62% +30.7%
≤30d 87 -5.4% -14.4% 40% 40% -14.1%
≤90d 87 -5.4% -14.4% 40% 40% -14.1%
all 87 -5.4% -14.4% 40% 40% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 40% -14.1%
10% -22.6% 40% -22.4%
15% -30.1% 40% -29.9%
20% -36.9% 40% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$175 vs −$129 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$297
Realized−$510
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses35 / 52
Est. fees paid−$208
Open positions3
Markets (closed)87 / 90
History coverage28d
Avg bet$134
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 87 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New York Mets vs. Toronto Blue Jays New York Mets 47¢ 46¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers Cincinnati Reds 45¢ 44¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Texas Rangers vs. Cleveland Guardians Texas Rangers 41¢ 40¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 51 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 28 $102 +$148 +146%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 28 $102 −$100 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 28 $102 +$131 +129%
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 28 $204 +$284 +140%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 27 $102 +$103 +101%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres Jun 27 $102 −$100 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres Jun 27 $102 +$126 +124%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 26 $102 −$100 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 25 $102 +$131 +129%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 25 $102 +$98 +97%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 25 $102 +$107 +105%
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins Jun 24 $117 +$100 +86%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 24 $102 −$100 -98%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 24 $102 −$100 -98%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 24 $102 −$100 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 24 $102 +$168 +165%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 24 $102 +$121 +119%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 23 $102 −$100 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 23 $102 −$100 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 23 $102 +$111 +109%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 23 $102 +$168 +165%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 22 $102 −$100 -98%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 22 $203 −$200 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 22 $102 −$100 -98%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 21 $102 +$201 +197%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 21 $102 −$100 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 21 $203 −$200 -98%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 21 $102 +$116 +114%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 21 $102 +$111 +109%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 20 $102 +$184 +180%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 19 $204 −$200 -98%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 18 $102 +$116 +114%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 18 $108 −$106 -98%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $204 +$296 +146%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $102 +$111 +109%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $204 −$200 -98%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 16 $203 −$200 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 16 $204 +$296 +146%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 15 $203 −$200 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 15 $204 −$200 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $203 +$246 +121%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $103 −$101 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Cincinnati Reds 45¢ $102 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Texas Rangers 41¢ $102 1h
New York Mets vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Mets 47¢ $102 1h
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Chicago Cubs 40¢ $102 29h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 34¢ $102 29h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 36¢ $102 2d
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 43¢ $102 2d
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Chicago Cubs 41¢ $204 2d
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 49¢ $102 2d
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 48¢ $102 3d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 44¢ $102 3d
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 43¢ $102 4d
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 50¢ $102 5d
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 48¢ $102 5d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 39¢ $102 5d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 45¢ $102 5d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Baltimore Orioles 47¢ $102 5d
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 53¢ $117 5d
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Houston Astros 45¢ $102 6d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 39¢ $102 6d
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Kansas City Royals 37¢ $102 6d
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 47¢ $102 6d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 43¢ $102 7d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 43¢ $203 7d
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Houston Astros 47¢ $102 7d
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Kansas City Royals 37¢ $102 7d
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 47¢ $102 7d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 47¢ $102 8d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Baltimore Orioles 33¢ $102 8d
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY San Diego Padres 42¢ $203 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $296.61 · official $296.61 (match) · 130 history records