Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:44:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B0 0xb033…84a2 crypto 20 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (54 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$34 (-23%) realized −$34 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate47%7W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day54.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$34
other 9% $0
sports 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (54 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-32.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -25.3% -32.4% 47% 33% -38.1%
≤30d 15 -25.3% -32.4% 47% 33% -38.1%
≤90d 15 -25.3% -32.4% 47% 33% -38.1%
all 15 -25.3% -32.4% 47% 33% -38.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover54.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -32.4% 33% -38.1%
10% ← realistic here -38.9% 27% -44.0%
15% -44.8% 7% -49.4%
20% -50.2% 7% -54.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 55% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -59% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$6 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses7 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)15 / 20
History coverage1d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day54.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Down 87¢ 78¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $7 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$4 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 16¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 83¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 29¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $1 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $1 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $1 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $4 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $12 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $6 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $0 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 47m
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 48m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.04 · official $16.08 (match) · 58 history records