Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:17:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B0 0xb033…a11f crypto 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 55d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$28 (-3%) realized −$8 · open −$20
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate62%8W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$664now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% −$12
world 22% +$64
crypto 15% −$49
politics 15% +$7
tech 6% $0
finance 5% −$50
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-24.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +65.0% +49.3% 100% 100% +49.3%
≤90d 13 -16.2% -24.2% 62% 46% -14.9%
all 13 -16.2% -24.2% 62% 46% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.2% 46% -14.9%
10% -31.4% 38% -23.1%
15% -38.1% 31% -30.5%
20% -44.1% 15% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 70% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$20 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$664
Realized−$8
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses8 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions12
Markets (closed)13 / 25
History coverage55d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 91¢ 90¢ $300 $298 −$2 (-1%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? Up 78¢ 78¢ $60 $60 +$0 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 86¢ 86¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $39 $39 +$0 (+1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 24? Yes 66¢ 65¢ $33 $32 −$0 (-2%)
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? Yes $36 $26 −$10 (-27%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 26¢ 32¢ $21 $25 +$4 (+21%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,400 by end of June? (copy) No 80¢ 52¢ $32 $21 −$11 (-34%)
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? Down 31¢ 28¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-11%)
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No 93¢ 93¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $30 +$20 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET May 03 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET May 03 $5 −$5 -94%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 03 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? May 03 $31 −$30 -96%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 03 $30 +$4 +12%
Will Trump say "Proud" during astronaut greeting? May 03 $47 +$5 +10%
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in April? Apr 29 $9 +$3 +35%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026? Apr 26 $100 +$36 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Apr 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Apr 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Apr 24 $20 +$7 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Apr 24 $5 +$4 +87%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 66¢ $35 1h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? BUY Up 78¢ $63 1h
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $3 1h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,400 by end of June? (copy) BUY No 80¢ $33 1h
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 81¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? BUY Down 31¢ $5 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $313 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 86¢ $52 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 26¢ $22 1h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 88¢ $41 1h
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $3 11d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $1 11d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $1 11d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $1 11d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $3 11d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $0 11d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $8 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $50 18d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $19 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $6 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down $5 46d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 46d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? BUY Yes 42¢ $31 46d
Will Trump say "Proud" during astronaut greeting? BUY Yes 91¢ $47 50d
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in April? SELL Yes 25¢ $12 50d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $136 53d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $100 54d
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in April? BUY Yes 18¢ $0 55d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $664.48 · official $664.48 (match) · 45 history records