Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:22:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B0 0xb032…9980 other 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 475d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate45%13W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% $0
world 31% −$1
crypto 7% $0
politics 4% $0
culture 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 -1.1% -10.6% 25% 0% -10.6%
≤90d 4 -1.1% -10.6% 25% 0% -10.6%
all 29 -0.0% -9.5% 45% 3% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 3% -9.7%
10% -18.2% 3% -18.4%
15% -26.1% 3% -26.2%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

475d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses13 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage475d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 96¢ 96¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $29 −$1 -2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 26 $28 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $28 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 24 $29 −$1 -3%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 24 $1 $0 -4%
Will Harry Kane win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Dec 10 $17 $0 +0%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 17 $1 $0 +10%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2600 and $2700 on June 11 at 5 Jun 12 $1 $0 +3%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? May 14 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? May 14 $18 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? May 13 $17 $0 -1%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Minnesota Vikings? May 09 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? May 09 $18 $0 +0%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 08 $18 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? May 08 $18 $0 -0%
Italian small businesses – dismissals and related compensation referen May 07 $17 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 National League Championship? May 07 $18 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? May 07 $17 $0 +2%
Will Jean-Marc Aveline be the next pope? Apr 25 $17 $0 +1%
Will Fridolin Ambongo Besungu be the next pope? Apr 25 $17 $0 +0%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 24 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? Apr 24 $20 $0 -1%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Mar 30 $19 $0 -1%
Will 'Snow White' gross between 44-49m on opening weekend? Mar 25 $19 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by March 31? Mar 24 $1 −$1 -41%
Israeli military action against Iran by Friday? Mar 23 $18 $0 +1%
Will Trump post 220 or more times March 14-21? Mar 20 $20 $0 +1%
Ripple above $2.70 on February 28? Mar 20 $19 $0 +1%
Will Red Bull Racing record the fastest lap at 2025 F1 Winter Testing? Feb 27 $19 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $28 1h
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 76¢ $28 22d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 78¢ $29 22d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $28 22d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $28 22d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $24 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $4 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $28 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 61¢ $28 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 63¢ $29 24d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 87¢ $0 175d
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? SELL No 98¢ $1 335d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 98¢ $1 335d
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? BUY No 90¢ $1 355d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2600 and $2700 on June 11 at 5 BUY No 97¢ $1 370d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 385d
Will Harry Kane win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $17 399d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 98¢ $18 399d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 98¢ $18 399d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $18 399d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $18 400d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 94¢ $17 400d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 95¢ $17 403d
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Minnesota Vikings? SELL No 94¢ $18 403d
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Minnesota Vikings? BUY No 94¢ $18 404d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $18 404d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $18 404d
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? SELL No 98¢ $18 404d
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? BUY No 98¢ $18 405d
Ethereum all time high by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $14 405d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.99 · official $27.70 (match) · 71 history records