trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 4 | -1.1% | -10.6% | 25% | 0% | -10.6% |
| ≤90d | 4 | -1.1% | -10.6% | 25% | 0% | -10.6% |
| all | 29 | -0.0% | -9.5% | 45% | 3% | -9.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -9.5% | 3% | -9.7% |
| 10% | -18.2% | 3% | -18.4% |
| 15% | -26.1% | 3% | -26.2% |
| 20% | -33.3% | 0% | -33.5% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | 96¢ | 96¢ | $28 | $28 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | May 26 | $29 | −$1 | -2% |
| Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | May 26 | $28 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? | May 25 | $28 | $0 | +1% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | May 24 | $29 | −$1 | -3% |
| Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 24 | $1 | $0 | -4% |
| Will Harry Kane win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? | Dec 10 | $17 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Jul 17 | $1 | $0 | +10% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be between $2600 and $2700 on June 11 at 5 | Jun 12 | $1 | $0 | +3% |
| Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? | May 14 | $18 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? | May 14 | $18 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? | May 13 | $17 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Minnesota Vikings? | May 09 | $18 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? | May 09 | $18 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? | May 08 | $18 | $0 | +0% |
| Ethereum all time high by June 30? | May 08 | $18 | $0 | -0% |
| Italian small businesses – dismissals and related compensation referen | May 07 | $17 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 National League Championship? | May 07 | $18 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? | May 07 | $17 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Jean-Marc Aveline be the next pope? | Apr 25 | $17 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Fridolin Ambongo Besungu be the next pope? | Apr 25 | $17 | $0 | +0% |
| Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Apr 24 | $17 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? | Apr 24 | $20 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? | Mar 30 | $19 | $0 | -1% |
| Will 'Snow White' gross between 44-49m on opening weekend? | Mar 25 | $19 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by March 31? | Mar 24 | $1 | −$1 | -41% |
| Israeli military action against Iran by Friday? | Mar 23 | $18 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Trump post 220 or more times March 14-21? | Mar 20 | $20 | $0 | +1% |
| Ripple above $2.70 on February 28? | Mar 20 | $19 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Red Bull Racing record the fastest lap at 2025 F1 Winter Testing? | Feb 27 | $19 | $0 | +0% |