Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:24:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B0 0xb026…d4fd other 88 markets active 2h ago coverage 680d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$374 (-7%) realized −$337 · open −$37
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate34%28W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$94now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$18
30 days+$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% +$227
crypto 20% −$407
other 18% −$134
sports 14% −$82
politics 7% +$50
tech 1% −$38
culture 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-37.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 -26.8% -33.8% 50% 25% +28.7%
≤90d 16 -65.6% -68.9% 19% 12% -52.6%
all 83 -30.5% -37.1% 34% 30% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.1% 30% -15.5%
10% -43.2% 27% -23.6%
15% -48.6% 19% -31.0%
20% -53.7% 16% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -48% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -51% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$31 · ×1.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

680d coverage
Net worth$94
Realized−$337
Unrealized−$37
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses28 / 55
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions4
Markets (closed)83 / 88
History coverage680d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 75¢ 62¢ $90 $75 −$15 (-17%)
Will Lautaro Martínez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 17¢ 26¢ $6 $9 +$3 (+50%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Haaland vs. Alvarez Alvarez 23¢ 5¢ $23 $5 −$18 (-78%)
Will Lamine Yamal record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 4¢ $12 $4 −$8 (-62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? Jun 13 $21 +$1 +7%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $81 +$69 +86%
Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League? May 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? May 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 07 $60 +$73 +122%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 03 $293 −$277 -94%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-03-14? Apr 03 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 03 $50 −$50 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026? Apr 03 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Manchester City reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? Apr 03 $0 $0 -100%
Will Ukraine qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $36 −$25 -70%
Will Real Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Apr 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Reza Pahlavi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Apr 03 $10 −$10 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 7? Mar 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 14 $11 $0 -3%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-12-10? Mar 01 $19 +$7 +37%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2025? Mar 01 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-08? Mar 01 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-28? Mar 01 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-20? Mar 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Sunderland AFC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? Mar 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Jerry Heil win Vidbir 2026? Mar 01 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Bodø/Glimt advance to the round of 16? Mar 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2025? Mar 01 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025? Mar 01 $36 −$36 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Mar 01 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? Mar 01 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025? Mar 01 $367 −$367 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Feb 28 $237 +$56 +24%
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? Feb 28 $66 +$31 +47%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 28 $55 +$86 +156%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 18 $101 −$21 -21%
Will Solana dip to $20 by December 31, 2026? Feb 06 $11 +$12 +111%
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31? Jan 01 $187 +$142 +76%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-12-20? Dec 21 $35 +$38 +108%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 20 $333 −$111 -34%
Will Bryan Johnson say "Erection" while tripping balls? Dec 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will France win on 2025-10-13? Dec 10 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-09-13? Dec 10 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100k in October? Dec 10 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Dec 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Russia enter Siversk by November 30? Dec 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-12-09? Dec 09 $23 +$19 +82%
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by November 30? Dec 01 $200 +$56 +28%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in November? Dec 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025? Nov 28 $244 +$10 +4%
Ukraine agrees to US-approved peace plan by Thursday? Nov 26 $187 +$61 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $91 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 7¢ $10 7d
World Cup Goals H2H: Haaland vs. Alvarez BUY Alvarez 23¢ $23 8d
Will Lamine Yamal record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 8d
Will Lamine Yamal record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 11d
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? SELL Yes 4¢ $21 11d
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 11d
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 11d
Will Lamine Yamal record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 11d
Will Lautaro Martínez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 17¢ $6 12d
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? BUY Yes 4¢ $8 12d
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 12d
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 12d
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? BUY Yes 3¢ $8 12d
Will Lamine Yamal record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 12d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $11 12d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 53¢ $81 25d
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven BUY Rico 9¢ $9 32d
Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 48d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 42¢ $92 48d
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-03-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $11 102d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $11 102d
Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 103d
Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 103d
Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 103d
Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 103d
Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 103d
Will Real Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? BUY No 18¢ $1 105d
Will Manchester City reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? BUY Yes 13¢ $0 105d
Will Ukraine qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 26¢ $11 105d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $93.86 · official $93.86 (match) · 406 history records