Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:27:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B0 0xb020…0231 sports 205 markets active 1h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$159 (+11%) realized +$156 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%86W / 100L
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$200now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days−$72
14 days+$78
30 days+$92
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% +$136
other 49% +$21
world 1% −$7
crypto 0% −$5
tech 0% +$5
economics 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +43.3% +29.6% 56% 56% -31.5%
≤30d 97 +12.1% +1.5% 47% 47% +2.0%
≤90d 178 -2.4% -11.7% 46% 46% +1.7%
all 186 -3.6% -12.8% 46% 46% +2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 46% +2.2%
10% -21.2% 45% -7.6%
15% -28.8% 43% -16.5%
20% -35.8% 38% -24.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +13% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late +17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$5 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$200
Realized+$156
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses86 / 100
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions8
Markets (closed)186 / 205
History coverage91d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 186 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $78 $90 +$12 (+15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $78 $65 −$13 (-17%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs FURIA 42¢ 42¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+35%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 6¢ 21¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+269%)
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Curaçao? Yes 8¢ 10¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+19%)
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 1 Curaçao? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 100 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $1 +$7 +712%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $5 +$4 +70%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $5 +$3 +62%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $10 +$7 +65%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $20 −$20 -99%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $2 +$2 +79%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 +$3 +62%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $30 +$29 +97%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $3 +$5 +172%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals Jun 18 $1 +$1 +140%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $5 +$4 +83%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$4 +70%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $3 −$3 -99%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 17 $1 +$1 +119%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $2 +$3 +134%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$4 +344%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $1 +$1 +146%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $108 −$107 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +90%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$13 +250%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $2 +$2 +109%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $2 +$2 +105%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2 +$2 +119%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $7 +$9 +122%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$5 +442%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $5 +$5 +93%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +76%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $2 +$3 +134%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $2 +$3 +124%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $162 +$158 +97%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $5 +$6 +117%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 42¢ $31 1h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 11h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $5 11h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 58¢ $20 11h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 60¢ $10 11h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 11h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 11h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 61¢ $5 12h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $2 21h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 21h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 21h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 22h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 23h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 29¢ $10 25h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 62¢ $10 26h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 32h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 38¢ $10 33h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 55¢ $8 33h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 54¢ $1 33h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 56¢ $1 33h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 30¢ $1 33h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 65¢ $10 33h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 3¢ $1 40h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi BUY 35¢ $2 40h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 22¢ $1 46h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 36¢ $3 46h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-19 BUY 13¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $199.67 · official $223.75 · 343 history records