Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:09:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B0 0xb01a…a222 weather 96 markets active 1h ago coverage 227d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$27 (+2%) realized +$21 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate26%24W / 70L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days−$63
14 days−$63
30 days−$63
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 76% +$15
other 11% +$68
sports 10% −$47
crypto 3% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-32.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +1.1% -8.6% 40% 40% -69.0%
≤30d 10 +1.1% -8.6% 40% 40% -69.0%
≤90d 85 -27.3% -34.3% 26% 25% -8.5%
all 94 -25.5% -32.6% 26% 24% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.6% 24% -8.6%
10% -39.1% 18% -17.3%
15% -45.0% 17% -25.3%
20% -50.4% 16% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$7 · ×2.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

227d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized+$21
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses24 / 70
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)94 / 96
History coverage227d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 94 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Argentina 37¢ 48¢ $20 $26 +$6 (+28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $14 +$1 +7%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +205%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +76%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $5 +$15 +316%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $12 −$12 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $11 −$11 -97%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $16 −$16 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on April 13? Apr 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on April 13? Apr 13 $6 −$5 -87%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 13? Apr 13 $49 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 11? Apr 13 $13 −$4 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on April 12? Apr 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on April 12? Apr 13 $7 +$9 +141%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on April 12? Apr 12 $4 −$1 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 11? Apr 11 $21 −$19 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 11? Apr 11 $54 −$28 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on April 11? Apr 11 $45 +$5 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on April 10? Apr 11 $61 −$61 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on April 10? Apr 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on April 10? Apr 11 $13 +$36 +270%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on April 10? Apr 10 $51 +$9 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on April 10? Apr 10 $90 +$10 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 10? Apr 10 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 10? Apr 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 9? Apr 10 $22 −$20 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on April 9? Apr 10 $24 −$20 -83%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C or higher on April 9? Apr 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 9? Apr 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 9? Apr 10 $31 +$42 +135%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 8? Apr 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on April 8? Apr 09 $33 +$17 +53%
XRP Up or Down - April 4, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Apr 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 4, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Apr 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on April 7? Apr 08 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 7? Apr 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on April 6? Apr 08 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 4, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Apr 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on April 6? Apr 08 $3 −$1 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C or higher on April 6? Apr 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 4, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Apr 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on April 7? Apr 08 $51 −$51 -100%
BNB Up or Down - April 4, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Apr 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on April 6? Apr 08 $2 −$1 -58%
BNB Up or Down - April 4, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Apr 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Apr 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 5? Apr 08 $7 −$5 -67%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 5? Apr 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $20 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 30¢ $15 30h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 31h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 31h
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 1 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 32h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 13¢ $3 32h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 85¢ $13 33h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 44¢ $6 33h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 15¢ $5 34h
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 34h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 34h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 23¢ $12 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 56¢ $20 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 2d
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? BUY Yes 13¢ $0 2d
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 2d
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $17 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 31¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 4d
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 16¢ $16 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on April 13? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 64d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on April 13? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 64d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on April 13? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 64d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on April 13? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 64d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on April 13? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 64d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on April 13? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 64d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 13? BUY No 85¢ $42 64d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 13? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 64d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 13? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 64d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.68 · official $25.68 (match) · 382 history records