Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:56:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
B0 0xb018…a3c2 sports 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 226d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$353 (-11%) realized −$396 · open +$43
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate36%12W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$98per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$143now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$293
world 1% +$1
tech 1% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-37.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 2 +16.3% +5.2% 50% 50% -5.9%
all 33 -31.4% -37.9% 36% 33% -19.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.9% 33% -19.4%
10% -43.9% 33% -27.1%
15% -49.3% 33% -34.1%
20% -54.3% 21% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% too few recent
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -60% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$36 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

226d coverage
Net worth$143
Realized−$396
Unrealized+$43
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses12 / 21
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage226d
Avg bet$98
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 60¢ 86¢ $100 $143 +$43 (+43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Pistons vs. Hornets Apr 10 $50 −$49 -99%
Lakers vs. Heat Mar 24 $40 +$53 +133%
Saint Louis Billikens vs. Georgia Bulldogs Mar 19 $1,000 −$18 -2%
Texas Longhorns vs. BYU Cougars Mar 19 $997 $0 +0%
Mavericks vs. Grizzlies Mar 15 $64 +$33 +52%
Raptors vs. Pelicans Mar 12 $20 +$22 +109%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Feb 28 $28 +$1 +3%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on February 27? Feb 27 $17 −$17 -100%
Nuggets vs. Knicks Feb 08 $40 +$17 +43%
Knicks vs. Celtics Feb 08 $40 −$40 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Wizards Jan 27 $40 −$40 -100%
Thunder vs. Cavaliers Jan 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Thunder vs. Rockets Jan 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers Jan 10 $40 −$40 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Heat Jan 10 $40 +$30 +75%
Warriors vs. Raptors Jan 03 $30 +$49 +163%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks Dec 28 $56 +$25 +45%
Bulls vs. Hawks Dec 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FaZe (BO5) Dec 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Heat vs. Magic Dec 09 $40 −$40 -100%
Pelicans vs. Nets Dec 06 $40 −$40 -100%
Clippers vs. Hawks Dec 03 $50 −$50 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pacers Dec 03 $100 +$45 +45%
Wizards vs. Pacers Dec 01 $30 +$13 +45%
Pistons vs. Celtics Nov 26 $40 −$40 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors Nov 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Rockets vs. Cavaliers Nov 19 $17 −$17 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) Nov 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Warriors vs. Spurs Nov 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Suns vs. Mavericks Nov 12 $92 −$92 -100%
Celtics vs. 76ers Nov 12 $64 +$52 +82%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $32 −$32 -100%
Celtics vs. Magic Nov 08 $30 +$22 +72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $101 1h
Pistons vs. Hornets BUY Hornets 61¢ $50 72d
Saint Louis Billikens vs. Georgia Bulldogs SELL Georgia Bulldogs 56¢ $983 94d
Saint Louis Billikens vs. Georgia Bulldogs BUY Georgia Bulldogs 57¢ $930 94d
Saint Louis Billikens vs. Georgia Bulldogs BUY Georgia Bulldogs 57¢ $2 94d
Saint Louis Billikens vs. Georgia Bulldogs BUY Georgia Bulldogs 57¢ $62 94d
Saint Louis Billikens vs. Georgia Bulldogs BUY Georgia Bulldogs 57¢ $5 94d
Saint Louis Billikens vs. Georgia Bulldogs BUY Georgia Bulldogs 57¢ $2 94d
Texas Longhorns vs. BYU Cougars SELL BYU Cougars 56¢ $997 94d
Texas Longhorns vs. BYU Cougars BUY BYU Cougars 56¢ $101 94d
Texas Longhorns vs. BYU Cougars BUY BYU Cougars 56¢ $560 94d
Texas Longhorns vs. BYU Cougars BUY BYU Cougars 56¢ $336 94d
Lakers vs. Heat BUY Lakers 43¢ $40 94d
Mavericks vs. Grizzlies BUY Mavericks 66¢ $64 101d
Raptors vs. Pelicans BUY Pelicans 48¢ $20 102d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? SELL Yes 74¢ $7 112d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? SELL Yes 73¢ $11 112d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? SELL Yes 72¢ $11 112d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? BUY Yes 71¢ $28 113d
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on February 27? BUY Up 42¢ $17 114d
Knicks vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 60¢ $40 133d
Nuggets vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 70¢ $40 137d
Trail Blazers vs. Wizards BUY Trail Blazers 70¢ $40 145d
Thunder vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 33¢ $50 153d
Thunder vs. Rockets BUY Rockets 38¢ $30 156d
Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers BUY Timberwolves 41¢ $40 162d
Timberwolves vs. Heat BUY Timberwolves 57¢ $40 168d
Warriors vs. Raptors BUY Raptors 38¢ $30 175d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 69¢ $56 179d
Bulls vs. Hawks BUY Hawks 59¢ $20 182d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $143.33 · official $138.33 · 60 history records