Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T05:37:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B0 0xb014…9b98 crypto 733 markets active 1h ago coverage 593d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,274 (-3%) realized −$1,268 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate52%381W / 350L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$313
7 days−$313
14 days−$337
30 days−$478
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$2,139
politics 0% +$1
world 0% −$4
other 0% $0
culture 0% −$1
finance 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -23.5% -30.8% 45% 30% -23.8%
≤30d 46 -10.4% -19.0% 57% 39% -20.8%
≤90d 510 -7.3% -16.1% 52% 41% -15.4%
all 731 -4.4% -13.5% 52% 42% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 42% -13.4%
10% -21.8% 34% -21.7%
15% -29.3% 27% -29.2%
20% -36.3% 20% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$32 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

593d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$1,268
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses381 / 350
Open positions2
Markets (closed)731 / 733
History coverage593d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 731 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 53¢ 10¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-82%)
Will Trump flip the bird again in 2026? Yes 61¢ 16¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-74%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 76 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 23 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 23 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 23 $72 +$29 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 23 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 23 $102 +$35 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 23 $92 +$39 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 22 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 22 $133 −$64 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 22 $101 −$11 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 22 $101 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 22 $62 −$58 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 22 $72 −$9 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 22 $101 −$64 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 22 $102 +$26 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 22 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 22 $193 −$4 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 22 $206 −$100 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 22 $31 −$21 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 22 $184 +$100 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 22 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 10 $41 −$40 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 10 $21 +$14 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 10 $20 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 05 $41 −$31 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 05 $31 +$17 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 04 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 04 $41 +$8 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 04 $40 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 04 $26 +$17 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 04 $20 +$5 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 04 $208 −$117 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 04 $52 −$21 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 04 $102 +$37 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 04 $82 +$35 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 04 $172 −$72 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 04 $11 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 04 $206 −$12 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 04 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 03 $101 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 03 $101 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 03 $203 +$15 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 03 $101 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET May 27 $20 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET May 27 $20 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET May 27 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET May 27 $31 −$24 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Apr 28 $82 −$23 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Apr 28 $41 +$15 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Apr 28 $38 +$6 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Apr 28 $51 −$31 -61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $109 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $92 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $72 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $99 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $97 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $92 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $41 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $36 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $30 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Down 22¢ $32 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $103 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Up 83¢ $89 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $101 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $112 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $101 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Up 4¢ $4 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $62 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $64 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $72 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Down 35¢ $36 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $101 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $128 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $102 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.42 · official $1.42 (match) · 1855 history records