Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:41:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
B0 0xb014…4969 sports 12 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$49 (+9%) realized +$59 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR80%break-even
Win rate80%8W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day30.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$80now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% +$18
other 25% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +80%
net ROI/market (all)+3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +14.6% +3.7% 80% 80% -2.5%
≤30d 10 +14.6% +3.7% 80% 80% -2.5%
≤90d 10 +14.6% +3.7% 80% 80% -2.5%
all 10 +14.6% +3.7% 80% 80% -2.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +3.7% 80% -2.5%
10% ← realistic here -6.2% 80% -11.8%
15% -15.3% 40% -20.3%
20% -23.6% 20% -28.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 44% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$47 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$80
Realized+$59
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses8 / 2
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)10 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day30.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 45¢ 38¢ $60 $52 −$8 (-14%)
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 Over 49¢ 46¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $30 +$30 +99%
Austria to score first vs. Jordan? Jun 17 $18 +$6 +34%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $26 −$25 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $71 −$70 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $56 +$22 +40%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 +$11 +23%
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? Jun 17 $20 +$8 +38%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $78 +$26 +33%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $30 +$17 +55%
Norway to score first vs. Iraq? Jun 16 $25 +$6 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $30 1m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 39¢ $31 1m
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 SELL Over 98¢ $39 7m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 52¢ $30 24m
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $61 25m
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $30 59m
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 49¢ $30 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 84¢ $36 1h
Austria to score first vs. Jordan? SELL Yes 99¢ $24 1h
Austria to score first vs. Jordan? BUY Yes 73¢ $18 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $30 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 BUY Over 31¢ $26 3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 29¢ $20 3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $79 3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $24 3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $2 3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $51 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 81¢ $62 4h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $30 4h
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? SELL Yes 99¢ $28 4h
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? BUY Yes 71¢ $20 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 5h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $104 6h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $8 6h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 79¢ $20 6h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 80¢ $50 6h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $47 6h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $30 7h
Norway to score first vs. Iraq? SELL Yes 100¢ $31 7h
Norway to score first vs. Iraq? BUY Yes 80¢ $25 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80.12 · official $79.51 (match) · 30 history records