Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:18:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
B0 0xb014…bd18 other 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 109d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$801 (+11%) realized −$142 · open +$943
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate82%9W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$361per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$7,156now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$5
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% +$840
politics 11% −$26
sports 3% +$82
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 6 +11.4% +0.8% 83% 33% -10.6%
≤90d 11 +5.0% -5.0% 82% 55% -12.9%
all 11 +5.0% -5.0% 82% 55% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.0% 55% -12.9%
10% -14.1% 27% -21.2%
15% -22.4% 18% -28.8%
20% -30.0% 9% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$146 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$7,156
Realized−$142
Unrealized+$943
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses9 / 2
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions10
Markets (closed)11 / 21
History coverage109d
Avg bet$361
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No 68¢ 90¢ $2,823 $3,736 +$913 (+32%)
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No 73¢ 68¢ $1,488 $1,388 −$100 (-7%)
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No 80¢ 93¢ $884 $1,025 +$141 (+16%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 85¢ 86¢ $521 $524 +$3 (+1%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 12¢ 10¢ $173 $137 −$36 (-21%)
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No 81¢ 88¢ $120 $131 +$11 (+9%)
Florentino Perez out as Real Madrid president by December 31, 2026? No 87¢ 93¢ $102 $109 +$7 (+7%)
Will Jude Bellingham win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No 98¢ 100¢ $85 $87 +$2 (+2%)
Will Erling Haaland win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No 96¢ 97¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+1%)
Will Julian Alvarez win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes $2 $3 +$1 (+83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mikel Arteta be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? Jun 11 $110 +$5 +5%
Will Alexander Sorloth be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga s May 26 $5 $0 +1%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga seaso May 26 $247 +$82 +33%
Will Dodi Lukebakio be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga seas May 24 $5 $0 +1%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 23 $190 −$131 -69%
Pep Guardiola out as Manchester City manager by the end of 2026? May 23 $38 +$37 +98%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $105 +$13 +12%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $110 +$12 +11%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $104 +$19 +18%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $173 +$78 +45%
Will Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? Apr 26 $162 −$162 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 85¢ $384 2h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 85¢ $140 26h
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 84¢ $4 2d
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 84¢ $4 2d
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 84¢ $4 2d
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 84¢ $15 2d
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 84¢ $10 2d
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 84¢ $8 2d
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 84¢ $9 2d
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 84¢ $1 2d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY No 12¢ $179 3d
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 73¢ $676 3d
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 73¢ $220 3d
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 73¢ $50 3d
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 73¢ $9 3d
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 84¢ $16 3d
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 84¢ $42 3d
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 84¢ $108 3d
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 84¢ $5 3d
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 73¢ $371 15d
Florentino Perez out as Real Madrid president by December 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $102 19d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL No 13¢ $58 26d
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 77¢ $689 27d
Pep Guardiola out as Manchester City manager by the end of 2026? SELL Yes 67¢ $12 33d
Pep Guardiola out as Manchester City manager by the end of 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $38 34d
Will Dodi Lukebakio be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga seas BUY No 99¢ $5 52d
Will Alexander Sorloth be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga s BUY No 99¢ $5 52d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga seaso BUY Yes 72¢ $1 52d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga seaso BUY Yes 72¢ $54 52d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga seaso BUY Yes 72¢ $18 52d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,155.67 · official $7,155.67 (match) · 82 history records