trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? | Jun 12 | $6 | −$6 | -100% |
| Over 25,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale? | Jun 12 | $126 | −$139 | -110% |
| Over $600M committed to the Monad public sale? | Jun 12 | $576 | −$576 | -100% |
| Over $20M committed to the Space public sale? | Jun 12 | $100 | −$113 | -113% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 17? | Jun 12 | $67 | −$67 | -100% |
| Over $300M committed to the Monad public sale? | Jun 12 | $2,287 | −$2,287 | -100% |
| Stable FDV above $2B one day after launch? | Jun 12 | $13 | −$16 | -120% |
| Over $60M committed to the Ranger public sale? | Jun 12 | $162 | −$162 | -100% |
| Over $20M committed to the Gensyn public sale? | Jun 12 | $15 | −$15 | -100% |
| MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? | Jun 12 | $1,672 | −$1,672 | -100% |
| Over $40M committed to the Ranger public sale? | Jun 12 | $204 | −$204 | -100% |
| Penguin listed on Binance by March 31? | Jun 12 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? | Jun 12 | $17 | −$17 | -100% |
| Over $800M committed to the Monad public sale? | Jun 12 | $226 | −$226 | -100% |
| Over 30,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale? | Jun 12 | $11 | −$75 | -679% |
| Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 12 | $1,832 | +$189 | +10% |
| Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 12 | $650 | +$50 | +8% |
| Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 10 | $1,365 | +$35 | +3% |
| Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 09 | $1,300 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 09 | $3,887 | −$32 | -1% |
| Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 05 | $4,150 | +$52 | +1% |
| Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 01 | $4,500 | −$900 | -20% |
| Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | May 07 | $2,584 | +$363 | +14% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 21 | -70.4% | -73.2% | 19% | 0% | -34.7% |
| ≤30d | 22 | -68.1% | -71.2% | 18% | 0% | -33.3% |
| ≤90d | 23 | -64.6% | -67.9% | 22% | 4% | -29.7% |
| all | 23 | -64.6% | -67.9% | 22% | 4% | -29.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -67.9% | 4% | -29.7% |
| 10% | -71.0% | 0% | -36.4% |
| 15% ← realistic here | -73.8% | 0% | -42.5% |
| 20% | -76.4% | 0% | -48.2% |