Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:45:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

B0 0xb013…6c47 other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$1,019 (+27%) realized +$743 · open +$276

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +118% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +82% what you keep after slip

Net edge+82%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%2W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$934per market

Trades / day4.0pace

Fees−$17est.

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$2,625now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+97.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+118.2%	+97.4%	100%	100%	+57.2%
≤30d	2	+118.2%	+97.4%	100%	100%	+57.2%
≤90d	2	+118.2%	+97.4%	100%	100%	+57.2%
all	2	+118.2%	+97.4%	100%	100%	+57.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+97.4%	100%	+57.2%
10%	+78.5%	100%	+42.1%
15%	+61.3%	50%	+28.4%
20%	+45.5%	50%	+15.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 76% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +74% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +118% · $-wt +74% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$503 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$2,625

Realized+$743

Unrealized+$276

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses2 / 0

Est. fees paid−$17

Open positions2

Markets (closed)2 / 4

History coverage1d

Avg bet$934

Trades / day4.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	71¢	86¢	$1,349	$1,625	+$276 (+20%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5	Over	66¢	66¢	$1,000	$1,000	+$0 (+0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$359	+$762	+212%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$1,006	+$244	+24%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	71¢	$1,361	1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5	BUY Over	66¢	$1,010	1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5	BUY Over	31¢	$359	7h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	80¢	$1,006	7h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,624.82 · official $2,624.83 (match) · 6 history records