Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:59:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B0 0xb012…318c sports 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 626d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$325 (-9%) realized −$324 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate28%8W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$121per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$1,080now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 58% −$5
other 30% −$23
sports 11% −$299
crypto 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-28.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 3 +29.5% +17.1% 33% 33% -9.1%
all 29 -21.3% -28.8% 28% 21% -20.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.8% 21% -20.6%
10% -35.6% 21% -28.2%
15% -41.8% 21% -35.1%
20% -47.5% 21% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -42% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$19 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

626d coverage
Net worth$1,080
Realized−$324
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses8 / 21
Open positions2
Markets (closed)29 / 31
History coverage626d
Avg bet$121
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $544 $544 −$0 (-0%)
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $537 $537 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 18 $1,078 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $1,084 −$2 -0%
Canadiens vs. Blue Jackets Apr 06 $14 +$12 +89%
Knicks vs. Heat Nov 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Clippers vs. Mavericks Nov 17 $15 +$10 +67%
Clemson vs. Louisville Nov 17 $14 +$16 +117%
Bulls vs. Pistons Nov 13 $13 +$8 +59%
Raptors vs. Hawks Nov 10 $9 +$11 +117%
Spread: BAL (-4.5) Sep 22 $8 −$8 -100%
Guardians vs. Tigers Sep 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Buccaneers vs. Texans Sep 16 $4 +$6 +127%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 3-6%? Jul 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Romuald Starosielec be the next President of Poland? Jul 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Lee Nak-yon be elected the next president of South Korea? Jul 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Solana reach $220 in June? Jul 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer in the EPL? May 19 $11 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in May? May 19 $6 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? May 15 $4 $0 +9%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? May 08 $5 $0 -0%
Global heat increase less than 1.22°C for 2024? May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in May? May 06 $6 $0 -0%
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 05 $6 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 30 $5 $0 -1%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 25 $4 $0 -1%
Canucks vs. Canadiens Jan 08 $123 −$123 -100%
Senators vs. Blues Jan 05 $107 −$107 -100%
Notre Dame vs. Georgia Jan 03 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Liverpool lead the EPL in points at midway point? Jan 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Who will speak more at VP Debate? Oct 03 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $537 1h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $544 1h
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,077 1h
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,078 12h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,083 12h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,084 19h
Knicks vs. Heat BUY Knicks 48¢ $12 212d
Canadiens vs. Blue Jackets BUY Blue Jackets 53¢ $14 212d
Clippers vs. Mavericks BUY Clippers 60¢ $15 215d
Clemson vs. Louisville BUY Clemson 46¢ $14 215d
Bulls vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 63¢ $13 219d
Raptors vs. Hawks BUY Raptors 46¢ $9 222d
Spread: BAL (-4.5) BUY BAL 50¢ $8 268d
Guardians vs. Tigers BUY Tigers 57¢ $10 274d
Buccaneers vs. Texans BUY Buccaneers 44¢ $4 276d
Will Solana reach $220 in June? BUY No 100¢ $2 359d
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer in the EPL? SELL Yes 99¢ $6 394d
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer in the EPL? BUY Yes 100¢ $6 395d
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in May? SELL No 99¢ $6 395d
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $6 397d
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer in the EPL? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 397d
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer in the EPL? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 399d
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? SELL No 80¢ $3 399d
Will Romuald Starosielec be the next President of Poland? BUY Yes $1 399d
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? SELL No 69¢ $1 401d
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? BUY No 69¢ $4 402d
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? SELL No 99¢ $5 405d
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? BUY No 99¢ $5 405d
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 3-6%? BUY Yes $1 406d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $6 407d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,080.46 · official $1,080.46 (match) · 64 history records