Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:13:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B0 0xb012…0136 crypto 574 markets active 1h ago coverage 121d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$869 (-9%) realized −$864 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate47%267W / 306L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day11.1pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days+$14
14 days+$14
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 38% −$139
crypto 37% −$384
other 24% −$379
finance 0% −$3
world 0% −$2
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-25.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -13.1% -21.4% 39% 33% -7.0%
≤30d 18 -13.1% -21.4% 39% 33% -7.0%
≤90d 239 -26.4% -33.4% 39% 30% -21.5%
all 573 -17.5% -25.3% 47% 33% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.3% 33% -17.8%
10% -32.5% 24% -25.6%
15% -39.0% 17% -32.8%
20% -45.0% 11% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$8 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$864
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses267 / 306
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)573 / 574
History coverage121d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day11.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 573 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal to score first vs. DR Congo? Jun 17 $70 +$18 +26%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $71 +$29 +41%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $15 −$5 -34%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $70 +$6 +9%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $61 +$19 +31%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$9 -87%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$6 +31%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$3 -26%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -81%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$44 +430%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $31 −$15 -49%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $46 +$42 +93%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $47 −$46 -99%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 08 $7 −$7 -99%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Gujarat Titans Apr 08 $19 −$7 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Apr 08 $5 −$4 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Apr 07 $2 −$2 -93%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07? Apr 07 $7 +$9 +132%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Mumbai Indians Apr 07 $13 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Apr 07 $3 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Apr 07 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Apr 07 $3 +$1 +47%
Will Blackburn Rovers FC win on 2026-04-06? Apr 07 $2 −$2 -100%
US Lecce vs. Atalanta BC: Both Teams to Score Apr 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Girona FC vs. Villarreal CF: Both Teams to Score Apr 07 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Apr 07 $3 $0 +6%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Punjab Kings - Complet Apr 06 $13 +$1 +7%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Punjab Kings Apr 06 $8 −$1 -8%
Will West Bromwich Albion FC win on 2026-04-06? Apr 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026? Apr 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Apr 06 $2 +$1 +56%
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-04-04? Apr 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Hellas Verona FC vs. ACF Fiorentina: Both Teams to Score Apr 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-04-05? Apr 05 $16 +$4 +24%
Will Torino FC win on 2026-04-05? Apr 05 $6 +$10 +166%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-04-04? Apr 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026? Apr 05 $5 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Apr 05 $1 $0 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Apr 05 $29 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Apr 05 $3 +$2 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Apr 05 $11 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Apr 05 $3 +$5 +176%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Apr 05 $2 −$2 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Apr 05 $6 $0 +1%
SS Lazio vs. Parma Calcio 1913: Both Teams to Score Apr 04 $5 +$1 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal to score first vs. DR Congo? SELL Yes 100¢ $88 1h
Portugal to score first vs. DR Congo? BUY Yes 79¢ $70 6h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 6h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 13h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 13h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 16h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? SELL Yes 9¢ $10 16h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 16h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 70¢ $71 16h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score SELL No 84¢ $71 16h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score SELL No 84¢ $1 16h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score SELL No 84¢ $1 16h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score SELL No 84¢ $1 16h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score SELL No 84¢ $1 16h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score SELL No 84¢ $1 16h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score SELL No 84¢ $1 16h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 77¢ $70 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 85¢ $80 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $61 18h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 22h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 24h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 49¢ $20 41h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 46h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 66¢ $27 46h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 11¢ $8 46h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 49¢ $20 46h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.03 · official $0.03 (match) · 1509 history records