Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:48:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
B0 0xb010…3c99 sports 27 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$571 (+38%) realized +$488 · open +$83
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate58%15W / 11L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$207now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$379
14 days+$557
30 days+$557
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% +$96
other 44% +$560
tech 1% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)+6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +29.7% +17.3% 67% 67% +25.2%
≤30d 26 +17.3% +6.1% 58% 58% +27.0%
≤90d 26 +17.3% +6.1% 58% 58% +27.0%
all 26 +17.3% +6.1% 58% 58% +27.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.1% 58% +27.0%
10% -4.0% 58% +14.9%
15% -13.3% 58% +3.8%
20% -21.8% 58% -6.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +40% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late +20% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$36 · ×1.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.42 per $1 lost it wins $2.42
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$207
Realized+$488
Unrealized+$83
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses15 / 11
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage10d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Yes 60¢ 100¢ $124 $207 +$83 (+67%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 20 $101 +$84 +82%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs Team Falcons (+3.5) Jun 20 $51 +$65 +128%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $101 −$100 -99%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 20 $101 +$91 +89%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 20 $102 +$98 +97%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 20 $101 +$87 +86%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 19 $102 +$103 +101%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
James Rodríguez: 1+ assists Jun 18 $30 −$29 -98%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 17 $101 +$87 +86%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $51 +$44 +86%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm Jun 16 $51 −$50 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $71 −$70 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $11 −$11 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $62 +$71 +114%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $51 +$56 +109%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$56 +109%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 12 $19 +$28 +143%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $60 +$42 +70%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -96%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -96%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $12 +$15 +123%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $20 +$25 +123%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 60¢ $125 1h
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 SELL Over 100¢ $185 2d
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs Team Falcons (+3.5) SELL Spirit 100¢ $116 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 51¢ $101 2d
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 54¢ $101 2d
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs Team Falcons (+3.5) BUY Spirit 43¢ $51 2d
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 SELL Over 100¢ $192 2d
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 52¢ $101 2d
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 SELL Over 100¢ $188 3d
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 53¢ $101 3d
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 50¢ $102 3d
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 49¢ $102 3d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $101 4d
James Rodríguez: 1+ assists BUY Yes 34¢ $30 4d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 5d
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 53¢ $101 5d
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm BUY Martin Damm 61¢ $51 6d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $71 7d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 22¢ $11 8d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 1.5 BUY Over 46¢ $62 8d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $51 9d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 10d
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 SELL Over 99¢ $47 10d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $60 10d
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 40¢ $19 10d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 32¢ $10 10d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? BUY Yes $10 10d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? BUY Yes $7 10d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 100¢ $27 10d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 44¢ $12 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $206.56 · official $206.56 (match) · 46 history records