Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:41:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B0 0xb00c…4a39 other 71 markets active 2h ago coverage 51d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,653 (-8%) realized +$248 · open −$2,901
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate47%28W / 32L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$483per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Fees−$140est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$17,028now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$85
7 days−$183
14 days+$421
30 days+$421
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% −$4,861
sports 15% +$2,218
crypto 11% +$285
politics 0% −$146
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +14.7% +3.8% 50% 50% -13.2%
≤30d 41 -7.5% -16.3% 46% 41% -6.0%
≤90d 60 -4.9% -14.0% 47% 43% -6.9%
all 60 -4.9% -14.0% 47% 43% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 43% -6.9%
10% -22.2% 43% -15.8%
15% -29.7% 42% -23.9%
20% -36.6% 33% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -11% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$171 vs −$137 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$17,028
Realized+$248
Unrealized−$2,901
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses28 / 32
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$140
Open positions10
Markets (closed)60 / 71
History coverage51d
Avg bet$483
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $15,879 $13,375 −$2,505 (-16%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ $465 $789 +$324 (+70%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 21¢ $552 $649 +$97 (+18%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $552 $509 −$43 (-8%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $492 $431 −$61 (-12%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $589 $379 −$211 (-36%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $267 $269 +$2 (+1%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $595 $247 −$347 (-58%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $254 $194 −$60 (-24%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $283 $186 −$97 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $306 −$36 -12%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 26 $120 −$119 -99%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $100 −$100 -100%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $110 +$90 +82%
Morocco vs. Haiti: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners AND Scotland vs. Bra Jun 25 $102 +$249 +244%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $999 −$846 -85%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners AND Will Colombia win on Jun 24 $102 +$183 +180%
Panama vs. Croatia: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $203 +$225 +111%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 21 $102 +$46 +46%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $102 +$93 +91%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $100 +$100 +100%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $102 +$62 +61%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $515 +$198 +38%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $542 +$324 +60%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $204 −$15 -8%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $125 −$18 -14%
Raphinha: 1+ goals Jun 20 $101 −$100 -99%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $325 −$320 -99%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 18 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 18 $90 +$90 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 18 $104 +$101 +97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 18 $102 +$52 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 18 $104 −$100 -96%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $101 +$84 +83%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $103 −$99 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $103 −$100 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $1,019 +$980 +96%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,017 +$6 +1%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $1,028 +$743 +72%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $996 −$689 -69%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $100 −$49 -49%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $508 +$329 +65%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $296 +$6 +2%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $204 −$200 -98%
Will VOX (VOX) win 16-18 seats in the 2026 Andalusia Regional Election May 17 $54 −$54 -100%
Will VOX (VOX) win 22 or more seats in the 2026 Andalusia Regional Ele May 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6AM ET May 15 $266 −$266 -100%
Will VOX (VOX) win 19-21 seats in the 2026 Andalusia Regional Election May 15 $79 −$79 -100%
HYPE Up or Down - May 14, 12PM ET May 14 $2 +$4 +233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5AM ET May 13 $111 +$26 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3AM ET May 13 $157 −$26 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4AM ET May 13 $185 +$75 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2AM ET May 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $270 1h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $270 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Norway 57¢ $120 3h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $90 19h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $5 19h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $5 19h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $88 23h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $2 23h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $7 23h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $3 23h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $2 23h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $5 23h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $3 23h
Morocco vs. Haiti: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners AND Scotland vs. Bra BUY 28¢ $102 2d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $154 2d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners AND Will Colombia win on BUY 35¢ $102 2d
Panama vs. Croatia: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 47¢ $203 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 38¢ $102 3d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 43¢ $148 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 4d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 5d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY 55¢ $51 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 37¢ $52 6d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 46¢ $164 6d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $100 6d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 35¢ $102 6d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $90 6d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $350 6d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $3 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17,027.90 · official $17,027.90 (match) · 595 history records