Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:25:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B0 0xb00a…b1e2 other 111 markets active 1h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate13%14W / 97L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$238per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$14
politics 29% −$9
sports 13% +$28
tech 5% −$1
crypto 2% $0
world 2% $0
economics 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 9 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 66 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
all 111 -0.6% -10.1% 13% 5% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 5% -9.5%
10% -18.7% 5% -18.2%
15% -26.6% 5% -26.1%
20% -33.8% 4% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 58% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×7.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses14 / 97
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)111 / 111
History coverage131d
Avg bet$238
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 111 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $182 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 20 $27 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $149 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $427 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $160 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $126 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $337 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 23 $428 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $157 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $468 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $167 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $131 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 15 $154 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $301 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $132 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $154 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $171 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $159 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $164 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Apr 20 $2 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $493 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $503 −$1 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $474 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 18 $230 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 17 $294 $0 -0%
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 17 $265 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 17 $252 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $235 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $238 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $472 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $488 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $1,159 −$1 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 15 $206 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $293 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $577 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $554 −$1 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $287 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 13 $278 $0 -0%
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 13 $207 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $279 −$1 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 12 $232 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $303 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 12 $307 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $270 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 07 $259 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 06 $273 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? Apr 06 $228 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 06 $288 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 06 $504 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 04 $496 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $27 1h
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $27 4h
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $27 7h
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $27 28h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $149 16d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $149 16d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $163 24d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $163 25d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $160 25d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $160 25d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $126 27d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $126 27d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $141 28d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $141 28d
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $155 28d
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $155 29d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $157 29d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $157 29d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $122 30d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $122 31d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $167 33d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $167 33d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $131 33d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $131 34d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $123 34d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $123 35d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $154 36d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $154 37d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $132 37d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $132 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 330 history records