Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:59:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B0 0xb003…cfef weather 248 markets active 3d ago coverage 67d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-1%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate52%130W / 118L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$3
14 days−$2
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 68% −$8
crypto 14% −$11
world 12% +$10
other 4% +$1
politics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +11.3% +0.7% 72% 36% -0.7%
≤30d 140 +0.1% -9.4% 50% 37% -9.5%
≤90d 248 -4.5% -13.6% 52% 30% -11.4%
all 248 -4.5% -13.6% 52% 30% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 30% -11.4%
10% -21.9% 23% -19.9%
15% -29.4% 21% -27.6%
20% -36.3% 19% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses130 / 118
Open positions0
Markets (closed)248 / 248
History coverage67d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 248 Trades
no open positions (47 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +84%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +116%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 13 $2 −$1 -49%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 12 $1 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 12 $1 $0 -31%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 11 $1 $0 +39%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 81°F or below on June Jun 11 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 11 $1 $0 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 10 $1 $0 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 10 $1 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 9? Jun 10 $1 +$1 +101%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 +$1 +65%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 09 $1 $0 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 +$1 +90%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 +$1 +116%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 +$1 +95%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 +$1 +103%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 +$1 +116%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 08 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 8? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 08 $1 +$1 +111%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 8? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 8? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 8? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 8? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 8? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 8? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 8? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 +$1 +87%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 +$1 +99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 13? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY Yes 52¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 13? SELL Yes 43¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 13? BUY Yes 61¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 13? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 13? SELL No 99¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 13? SELL No 94¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 13? SELL No 98¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju SELL No 76¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 13? BUY No 93¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 13? BUY No 90¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY No 89¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 13? BUY No 91¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 12? SELL No 92¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 12? SELL No 96¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 12? SELL No 96¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju SELL No 88¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 12? SELL No 92¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? SELL No 82¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? SELL No 74¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju SELL No 55¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 12? BUY No 87¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 12? BUY No 89¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 12? BUY No 83¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 12? BUY No 83¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY No 78¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? BUY No 87¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju BUY No 77¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY No 79¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June SELL No 100¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 501 history records