Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T11:35:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AF 0xafff…bfc3 world 27 markets active 0h ago coverage 403d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate38%10W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$2
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 67% −$1
politics 13% $0
other 10% +$1
crypto 6% +$1
tech 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 12 -0.2% -9.7% 17% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 12 -0.2% -9.7% 17% 0% -9.8%
all 26 +0.2% -9.3% 38% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.2%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

403d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses10 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage403d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 97¢ 97¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $46 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 22 $6 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $3 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $27 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $9 $0 -4%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $88 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $48 −$1 -2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $48 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $16 +$1 +5%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $43 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $47 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $90 $0 +0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 21 $2 $0 -2%
Will Benfica win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 12 $1 $0 +2%
Will Călin Georgescu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Dec 12 $23 $0 +1%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Jul 16 $24 −$1 -3%
Will Elon tweet less than 150 times June 6–13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +3%
Will Krishna Mathoera be the next president of Suriname after the elec May 27 $7 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $110 in May? May 22 $24 $0 +1%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? May 21 $23 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Putin in Saudi Arabia before June? May 20 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Democratic Alternative '91 win the most seats in the 2025 Sur May 20 $24 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1700 in May? May 19 $24 $0 +2%
Will Luxembourg finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5? May 19 $22 +$1 +4%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? May 17 $23 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb May 16 $22 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $4 2m
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $31 2m
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $46 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $46 2h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 12h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 14h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $1 7d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $0 7d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $1 7d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $2 7d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $3 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $27 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $9 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $19 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $8 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $9 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $46 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $46 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $1 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $41 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $7 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $36 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $7 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $40 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 85¢ $48 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $4 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $43 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $48 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 66¢ $16 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 63¢ $16 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.83 · official $34.83 (match) · 73 history records