Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:34:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AF 0xaffe…7140 sports 1000 markets active 1h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,053 (-6%) realized −$4,050 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%397W / 594L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day7.9pace
Fees−$460est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$316now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$91
14 days+$308
30 days−$127
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$2,121
other 11% −$2,067
world 0% −$58
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +32.5% +19.9% 50% 50% -22.1%
≤30d 56 +22.9% +11.2% 46% 46% -13.4%
≤90d 479 -4.4% -13.5% 40% 40% -16.7%
all 991 -3.5% -12.7% 40% 40% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 40% -15.0%
10% -21.1% 40% -23.1%
15% -28.7% 40% -30.6%
20% -35.7% 39% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$89 vs −$67 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$316
Realized−$4,050
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses397 / 594
Est. fees paid−$460
Open positions6
Markets (closed)991 / 1000
History coverage137d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 991 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $145 $145 +$0 (+0%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? No 55¢ 50¢ $58 $52 −$6 (-10%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 44¢ 48¢ $29 $32 +$3 (+10%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Yes 29¢ 30¢ $29 $30 +$0 (+2%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 80¢ 81¢ $29 $29 +$1 (+2%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $29 $27 −$2 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 494 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys Jun 19 $29 −$29 -98%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tatjana Maria Jun 19 $119 −$116 -98%
Set Handicap: Svitolina (-1.5) vs Lys (+1.5) Jun 18 $118 +$76 +65%
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 17 $29 +$33 +114%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $177 −$174 -99%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $29 +$49 +165%
Royan: Yanki Erel vs Ryo Tabata Jun 16 $30 +$86 +291%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $29 +$38 +129%
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 16 $14 +$33 +226%
Set Handicap: Pliskova (-1.5) vs Bejlek (+1.5) Jun 16 $29 −$29 -99%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin Jun 15 $29 −$29 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $29 −$29 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $119 +$165 +140%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 11 $30 +$70 +238%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 10 $29 −$29 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Quentin Halys vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 09 $71 +$99 +140%
HSBC Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Alexandra Eala Jun 09 $29 −$29 -98%
Libema Open: Mia Pohankova vs Clara Tauson Jun 08 $29 +$64 +216%
Libema Open: Daria Kasatkina vs Robin Montgomery Jun 08 $30 +$58 +197%
Libema Open, Qualification: Hanne Vandewinkel vs Anouk Koevermans Jun 07 $29 −$29 -98%
Set Handicap: Andreeva (-1.5) vs Chwalinska (+1.5) Jun 06 $29 +$18 +62%
Kashiwa Reysol vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $118 −$116 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 05 $30 +$19 +63%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $29 +$51 +172%
Makarska: Robin Montgomery vs Lea Boskovic Jun 04 $29 +$51 +172%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $88 +$105 +119%
Makarska: Lucie Havlickova vs Yasmine Kabbaj Jun 04 $29 +$51 +172%
Birmingham: Nikola Bartunkova vs Gabriela Knutson Jun 04 $30 −$29 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 03 $29 +$49 +165%
Makarska: Andrea Lazaro Garcia vs Laura Samson Jun 03 $29 +$32 +109%
Prostejov: Sebastian Baez vs Tristan Boyer Jun 03 $11 −$11 -98%
Birmingham: Celine Naef vs Maddison Inglis Jun 02 $29 −$29 -98%
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Shnaider (+1.5) Jun 02 $58 −$58 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 02 $29 −$29 -98%
CD Limache vs. CD Coquimbo Unido: O/U 2.5 Jun 01 $118 +$106 +90%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo May 31 $45 −$44 -98%
Burgos CF vs. FC Andorra: Both Teams to Score May 31 $178 −$175 -98%
Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC: O/U 2.5 May 31 $142 −$140 -98%
Will Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC end in a draw? May 31 $30 −$29 -98%
Game Handicap: JDG (-2.5) vs ThunderTalk Gaming (+2.5) May 29 $59 −$59 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Yulia Putintseva vs Camila Osorio May 28 $44 −$44 -98%
Will Botafogo FR win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $118 −$118 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Jil Teichmann vs Magdalena Frech May 27 $44 +$65 +146%
Roland Garros ATP: Nuno Borges vs Miomir Kecmanovic May 27 $44 +$65 +146%
Roland Garros WTA: Dalma Galfi vs Mayar Sherif May 26 $44 +$51 +114%
Roland Garros WTA: Linda Fruhvirtova vs Elsa Jacquemot May 26 $44 −$44 -98%
Will Paderborn vs. Wolfsburg end in a draw? May 25 $30 +$78 +262%
Roland Garros WTA: Hanne Vandewinkel vs Madison Keys May 25 $30 −$29 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Marton Fucsovics vs Matteo Berrettini May 25 $54 −$53 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Alexander Shevchenko vs Alex Michelsen May 24 $45 −$44 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $118 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 44¢ $30 19h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 40¢ $29 28h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 80¢ $29 34h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 9¢ $30 39h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 55¢ $59 46h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys BUY Madison Keys 42¢ $29 2d
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tatjana Maria BUY Tatjana Maria 41¢ $30 2d
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tatjana Maria BUY Tatjana Maria 41¢ $89 2d
Set Handicap: Svitolina (-1.5) vs Lys (+1.5) BUY Svitolina 60¢ $118 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 52¢ $177 4d
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 46¢ $29 4d
Set Handicap: Pliskova (-1.5) vs Bejlek (+1.5) BUY Pliskova 54¢ $29 5d
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Yannick Hanfmann 30¢ $14 5d
Royan: Yanki Erel vs Ryo Tabata BUY Ryo Tabata 25¢ $30 5d
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 43¢ $29 5d
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin BUY Sofia Kenin 43¢ $29 5d
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Corentin Moutet 37¢ $29 5d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $29 6d
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios BUY Sho Shimabukuro 41¢ $119 10d
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Zhizhen Zhang BUY Zhizhen Zhang 29¢ $30 10d
HSBC Championships: Laura Siegemund vs Amanda Anisimova BUY Laura Siegemund 25¢ $30 11d
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz BUY Martin Landaluce 31¢ $29 11d
HSBC Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Alexandra Eala BUY Shuai Zhang 37¢ $29 12d
Stuttgart Open: Quentin Halys vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 41¢ $71 13d
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Leylah Fernandez 49¢ $29 13d
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Terence Atmane BUY Terence Atmane 43¢ $29 13d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 29¢ $30 13d
Libema Open: Daria Kasatkina vs Robin Montgomery BUY Robin Montgomery 33¢ $30 13d
Libema Open: Mia Pohankova vs Clara Tauson BUY Mia Pohankova 31¢ $29 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $315.63 · official $315.63 (match) · 1612 history records