Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T13:07:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
AF 0xaffd…7158 sports 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$21 (+4%) realized +$22 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%18W / 16L
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day13.6pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% +$28
other 15% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +21.5% +9.9% 53% 53% +3.1%
≤30d 34 +21.5% +9.9% 53% 53% +3.1%
≤90d 34 +21.5% +9.9% 53% 53% +3.1%
all 34 +21.5% +9.9% 53% 53% +3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.9% 53% +3.1%
10% -0.6% 53% -6.8%
15% -10.2% 53% -15.8%
20% -19.0% 53% -24.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +33% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$8 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized+$22
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses18 / 16
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 40
History coverage4d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day13.6
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Under 59¢ 57¢ $45 $44 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$8 +76%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 25 $5 +$5 +93%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $15 +$14 +93%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on Jun 25 $10 +$6 +64%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $15 −$15 -99%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 24 $10 +$10 +101%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $10 +$8 +76%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $10 +$8 +79%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -99%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $10 −$10 -99%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 7.5 Total Corners AND Will Colombia win on Jun 24 $10 +$13 +130%
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $20 +$14 +67%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 23 $10 +$8 +82%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -97%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals Jun 23 $4 −$4 -98%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? Jun 23 $5 +$33 +640%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 3 Algeria? Jun 23 $5 +$3 +64%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $10 +$7 +73%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $5 +$3 +64%
Michael Olise: 1+ assists Jun 23 $5 +$6 +109%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $5 +$8 +158%
Algeria leading at halftime? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 Senegal? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $3 +$3 +109%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 +$3 +250%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 59¢ $46 1h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 AND Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 1. BUY 31¢ $31 2h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 AND Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 1. BUY 31¢ $204 3h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 56¢ $10 12h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 51¢ $15 15h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $15 15h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) SELL Bosnia and Herzegovina 100¢ $20 15h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 51¢ $5 23h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 23h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 56¢ $10 24h
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 51¢ $10 24h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on BUY 60¢ $10 24h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 49¢ $10 24h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $10 24h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score AND Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY 17¢ $5 24h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 7.5 Total Corners AND Will Colombia win on SELL 99¢ $23 32h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 7.5 Total Corners AND Will Colombia win on BUY 42¢ $10 35h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 41¢ $10 43h
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 54¢ $10 46h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes $3 2d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND BUY 34¢ $5 2d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 41¢ $5 2d
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals BUY Yes 39¢ $4 2d
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 36¢ $4 2d
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals AND Harry Kane: 2+ goals AND Luis Díaz: 1+ g BUY $2 2d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 59¢ $20 2d
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Croatia 41¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? SELL Yes 88¢ $20 2d
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? SELL Yes 80¢ $18 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.91 · official $273.91 · 67 history records