Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:25:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AF 0xaffc…a372 crypto 361 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d only
✗ bot/MM pace (1661 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,990 (+14%) realized +$1,992 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate55%197W / 163L
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day1661.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$98
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (1661 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 360 -3.4% -12.6% 55% 1% -8.9%
≤30d 360 -3.4% -12.6% 55% 1% -8.9%
≤90d 360 -3.4% -12.6% 55% 1% -8.9%
all 360 -3.4% -12.6% 55% 1% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1661.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.6% 1% -8.9%
10% ← realistic here -21.0% 1% -17.6%
15% -28.6% 0% -25.6%
20% -35.6% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.09 per $1 lost it wins $2.09
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized+$1,992
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses197 / 163
Open positions1
Markets (closed)360 / 361
History coverage2d ⚠
Avg bet$41
Trades / day1661.2
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 360 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Down 96¢ 100¢ $28 $29 +$1 (+4%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-84%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $64 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $54 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $39 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $39 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $64 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $54 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $64 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $29 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $54 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $64 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $23 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $39 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $54 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $39 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $29 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $42 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $64 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $52 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $13 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $64 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $54 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $18 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $36 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $64 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $23 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $67 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $54 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $23 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $54 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $35 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 15 $64 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $38 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $54 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $54 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $54 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $54 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $48 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $64 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $54 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $39 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $51 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $64 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $54 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $23 −$1 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $16 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $8 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $0 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $0 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $12 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $16 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $24 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $9 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $24 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $16 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $7 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $0 11m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.37 · official $30.42 · 3500 history records