Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T01:30:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AF 0xaffc…cddc sports 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$44 (+7%) realized +$41 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt +112% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +92% what you keep after slip
Net edge+92%after slip
Net WR73%break-even
Win rate73%16W / 6L
Drawdown87%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$88now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$79
7 days+$79
14 days+$38
30 days+$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% +$35
crypto 6% −$1
other 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +73%
net ROI/market (all)+91.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +42.8% +29.2% 71% 71% +13.7%
≤30d 22 +111.7% +91.6% 73% 73% -2.5%
≤90d 22 +111.7% +91.6% 73% 73% -2.5%
all 22 +111.7% +91.6% 73% 73% -2.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +91.6% 73% -2.5%
10% +73.2% 73% -11.9%
15% +56.5% 68% -20.4%
20% +41.1% 64% -28.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +112% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +78% → late +145% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$28 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$88
Realized+$41
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses16 / 6
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions2
Markets (closed)22 / 26
History coverage18d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown87%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 34¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+8%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Morocco? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $35 $34 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 30 $18 +$16 +89%
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 29 $36 −$36 -100%
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $40 −$40 -100%
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 29 $134 +$116 +86%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 29 $4 +$3 +78%
Dalian Yingbo FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC: Neither team to score first? Jun 28 $1 +$1 +223%
Algeria vs. Austria: Neither team to score first? Jun 28 $78 +$19 +24%
Japan to score first vs. Tunisia? Jun 21 $2 +$4 +203%
Londrina EC to score first vs. Athletic Club? Jun 20 $0 +$2 +1011%
Paraguay vs. Australia: Neither team to score first? Jun 20 $81 −$81 -100%
United States to score first vs. Australia? Jun 19 $3 +$5 +186%
Mexico to score first vs. Korea Republic? Jun 19 $2 +$6 +245%
Canada to score first vs. Qatar? Jun 19 $3 +$4 +138%
Colombia to score first vs. Uzbekistan? Jun 18 $2 +$4 +163%
Portugal to score first vs. DR Congo? Jun 17 $3 +$4 +147%
Austria to score first vs. Jordan? Jun 17 $2 +$4 +150%
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? Jun 17 $3 +$4 +138%
Iraq vs. Norway: Neither team to score first? Jun 17 $13 +$5 +39%
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ecuador to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
FathUnionSport vs. Maghreb AS de Fès: Neither team to score first? Jun 12 $4 +$5 +138%
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 17¢ $36 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $51 1h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals SELL No 77¢ $6 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 57¢ $87 4h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 53¢ $18 4h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 47¢ $48 5h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 35¢ $36 5h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $40 5h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY 14¢ $61 9h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals AND Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Brazil vs. Jap BUY $30 9h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals AND Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Brazil vs. Jap BUY $30 9h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY No 43¢ $4 36h
Algeria vs. Austria: Neither team to score first? BUY No 80¢ $11 6d
Algeria vs. Austria: Neither team to score first? BUY No 80¢ $34 6d
Algeria vs. Austria: Neither team to score first? BUY No 81¢ $33 6d
Paraguay vs. Australia: Neither team to score first? BUY No 81¢ $81 9d
Londrina EC to score first vs. Athletic Club? BUY Yes $0 9d
Japan to score first vs. Tunisia? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 12d
Dalian Yingbo FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC: Neither team to score first? BUY No 31¢ $1 12d
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 34¢ $0 13d
Canada to score first vs. Qatar? BUY Yes 42¢ $3 15d
Colombia to score first vs. Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 15d
Portugal to score first vs. DR Congo? BUY Yes 42¢ $3 15d
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? BUY Yes 42¢ $3 15d
Austria to score first vs. Jordan? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 15d
United States to score first vs. Australia? BUY Yes 35¢ $3 15d
Mexico to score first vs. Korea Republic? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 15d
Iraq vs. Norway: Neither team to score first? BUY No 72¢ $13 15d
Ecuador to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 16d
Ecuador to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $87.79 · official $87.81 (match) · 53 history records