Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:15:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AF 0xaff9…64ff weather 419 markets active 1h ago coverage 22d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 22d only
✗ bot/MM pace (141 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$11,948 (-67%) realized −$12,162 · open +$214
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -53% what you keep after slip
Net edge-53%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate18%115W / 508L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day141.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$856now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17,272
7 days−$17,412
14 days−$16,702
30 days−$18,033
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$170
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (141 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-44.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 358 -73.8% -76.3% 8% 8% -89.3%
≤30d 623 -38.9% -44.7% 18% 18% -58.8%
≤90d 623 -38.9% -44.7% 18% 18% -58.8%
all 623 -38.9% -44.7% 18% 18% -58.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover141.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -44.7% 18% -58.8%
10% ← realistic here -50.0% 18% -62.7%
15% -54.8% 18% -66.3%
20% -59.3% 18% -69.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -54% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt -54% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -80% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$90 vs −$56 · ×1.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$856
Realized−$12,162
Unrealized+$214
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses115 / 508
Open positions29
Markets (closed)623 / 419
History coverage22d ⚠
Avg bet$43
Trades / day141.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 29 History 623 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on June 15? Yes 20¢ 90¢ $25 $113 +$88 (+355%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 15? Yes 23¢ 99¢ $25 $107 +$83 (+335%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 15? Yes 28¢ 96¢ $25 $86 +$61 (+245%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 15? Yes 39¢ 100¢ $25 $64 +$39 (+158%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? Yes 31¢ 63¢ $23 $46 +$23 (+104%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? Yes 14¢ 20¢ $24 $36 +$12 (+52%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? Yes 13¢ 17¢ $25 $32 +$7 (+30%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 16? Yes 14¢ 19¢ $24 $32 +$8 (+32%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 15? Yes 29¢ 35¢ $25 $30 +$5 (+21%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 16? Yes 30¢ 31¢ $23 $24 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 16? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $24 $23 −$1 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 16? Yes 32¢ 30¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 16? Yes 30¢ 28¢ $24 $22 −$2 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 16? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16? Yes 45¢ 40¢ $24 $22 −$2 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? Yes 33¢ 28¢ $25 $21 −$4 (-16%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 16? Yes 30¢ 26¢ $24 $20 −$4 (-15%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 16? Yes 32¢ 26¢ $24 $20 −$4 (-18%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? Yes 35¢ 28¢ $24 $20 −$5 (-19%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 16? Yes 23¢ 39¢ $11 $19 +$8 (+68%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 15? Yes 41¢ 28¢ $25 $17 −$8 (-32%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 15? Yes 46¢ 27¢ $24 $14 −$10 (-41%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 16? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $12 $14 +$2 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 15? Yes 18¢ 9¢ $25 $13 −$12 (-48%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 16? Yes 21¢ 24¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 471 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 15? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 2? Jun 15 $58 −$58 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on April 30? Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on May 16? Jun 15 $105 −$105 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on May 2? Jun 15 $98 −$98 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on May 12? Jun 15 $33 −$33 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 28? Jun 15 $52 −$52 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on May 1? Jun 15 $109 −$109 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on May 2? Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 5? Jun 15 $81 −$81 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on May 9? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on May 4? Jun 15 $72 −$72 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 13°C on May 4? Jun 15 $72 −$72 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on May 9? Jun 15 $91 −$91 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 21? Jun 15 $63 −$63 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 25? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on May 15? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on May 22? Jun 15 $61 −$61 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 13? Jun 15 $89 −$89 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on May 19? Jun 15 $67 −$67 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on May 6? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on May 4? Jun 15 $72 −$72 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 29? Jun 15 $84 −$84 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on May 18? Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on May 4? Jun 15 $72 −$72 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on April 28? Jun 15 $53 −$53 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on May 2? Jun 15 $99 −$99 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on May 21? Jun 15 $63 −$63 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on May 13? Jun 15 $49 −$49 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 33°C on May 4? Jun 15 $72 −$72 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 33°C on May 17? Jun 15 $57 −$57 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on April 29? Jun 15 $80 −$80 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on May 5? Jun 15 $81 −$81 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 18? Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on May 13? Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on May 3? Jun 15 $81 −$81 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on May 9? Jun 15 $33 −$33 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 10? Jun 15 $108 −$108 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ma Jun 15 $68 −$68 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on April 28? Jun 15 $32 −$32 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on April 30? Jun 15 $39 −$39 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C on May 5? Jun 15 $81 −$81 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on May 18? Jun 15 $77 −$77 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on May 16? Jun 15 $105 −$105 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on May 11? Jun 15 $49 −$49 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on May 4? Jun 15 $71 −$71 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on May 15? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on May 3? Jun 15 $82 −$82 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Ma Jun 15 $65 −$65 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on May 11? Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 16? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 45m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 16? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 16? BUY Yes 30¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 16? BUY Yes 30¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 21¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 16? BUY Yes 37¢ $23 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 33¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 33¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 16? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 4h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 16? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 16? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 16? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 32¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 15? BUY Yes 41¢ $15 5h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 15? BUY Yes 41¢ $3 5h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 5h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 33¢ $13 6h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 6h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 16? BUY Yes 18¢ $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 32¢ $9 7h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 16? BUY Yes 30¢ $25 7h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16? BUY Yes 45¢ $25 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $855.80 · official $858.15 (match) · 3500 history records