Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:32:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
AF 0xaff8…ab4a other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$311 (+9%) realized +$311 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate62%5W / 3L
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$412per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$280
7 days+$279
14 days+$279
30 days+$279
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% +$248
sports 38% +$32
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +3.5% -6.4% 57% 29% -1.9%
≤30d 8 +5.6% -4.5% 62% 38% -1.9%
≤90d 8 +5.6% -4.5% 62% 38% -1.9%
all 8 +5.6% -4.5% 62% 38% -1.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.5% 38% -1.9%
10% -13.6% 12% -11.2%
15% -22.0% 12% -19.8%
20% -29.6% 0% -27.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 84% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$60 vs −$7 · ×8.21 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×13.68 per $1 lost it wins $13.68
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$311
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses5 / 3
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage9d
Avg bet$412
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 22 $777 −$21 -3%
France leading at halftime? Jun 22 $778 $0 -0%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $730 +$48 +6%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $529 +$200 +38%
Spread: Ecuador (-4.5) Jun 21 $477 +$53 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 76¢ $756 1h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 77¢ $777 1h
France leading at halftime? SELL Yes 97¢ $778 1h
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 97¢ $3 1h
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 97¢ $776 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 97¢ $778 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $730 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 96¢ $730 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 69¢ $529 8h
Spread: Ecuador (-4.5) BUY Curaçao 91¢ $176 47h
Spread: Ecuador (-4.5) BUY Curaçao 89¢ $301 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 20 history records