Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:51:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AF 0xaff5…ef39 other 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$113 (-31%) realized −$124 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate44%7W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$75now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$87
7 days−$105
14 days−$105
30 days−$105
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% −$81
crypto 17% −$13
sports 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-22.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -15.2% -23.3% 47% 20% -45.0%
≤30d 16 -14.3% -22.5% 44% 19% -43.8%
≤90d 16 -14.3% -22.5% 44% 19% -43.8%
all 16 -14.3% -22.5% 44% 19% -43.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.5% 19% -43.8%
10% -29.9% 12% -49.1%
15% -36.7% 6% -54.1%
20% -42.9% 6% -58.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 62% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -38% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$13 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$75
Realized−$124
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses7 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)16 / 21
History coverage60d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $53 $74 +$20 (+37%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 2¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $131 −$75 -58%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$4 +234%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $2 $0 +5%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$11 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$1 +8%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $15 +$1 +8%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $19 −$1 -4%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $15 −$1 -8%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$3 +29%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $10 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $55 2h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $50 2h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 2h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 5h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 5h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 26h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in BUY 18¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $11 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $11 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $16 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 27h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 75¢ $16 27h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $15 28h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 39¢ $18 28h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 19¢ $14 28h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 25¢ $14 28h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 29h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $6 29h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY 7¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $75.33 · official $75.33 (match) · 61 history records