Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T12:46:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AF
0xaff3…6ecc
other · 251 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$64,515 -56%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$53,659 · open −$57
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$18,452
Realized−$53,659
Unrealized−$57
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses72 / 327
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$1,091
Open positions120
Markets (closed)399 / 251
History coverage24d
Avg bet$455
Trades / day138.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%
Chart Positions 120 History 399 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$42,478
7 days−$42,890
14 days−$43,784
30 days−$53,659
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Over $1B crypto hack value in 2026? Yes 93¢ 94¢ $2,612 $2,646 +$34 (+1%)
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 17¢ 81¢ $376 $1,751 +$1,375 (+366%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $1,220 $1,303 +$83 (+7%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 93¢ 92¢ $900 $890 −$10 (-1%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 48¢ 56¢ $638 $748 +$110 (+17%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $780 $747 −$33 (-4%)
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 52¢ 56¢ $645 $690 +$45 (+7%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 78¢ 80¢ $606 $621 +$15 (+2%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 90¢ 92¢ $579 $591 +$13 (+2%)
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 33¢ 48¢ $383 $550 +$168 (+44%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $536 $500 −$36 (-7%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $420 $423 +$2 (+1%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 98¢ 98¢ $413 $413 −$0 (-0%)
Trump out as President before 2027? No 88¢ 90¢ $315 $324 +$9 (+3%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $321 $322 +$1 (+0%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 85¢ 89¢ $271 $283 +$12 (+4%)
Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch? No 92¢ 94¢ $227 $231 +$4 (+2%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 18¢ 15¢ $268 $223 −$46 (-17%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 67¢ 72¢ $194 $208 +$13 (+7%)
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 61¢ 56¢ $204 $189 −$15 (-7%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 78¢ 76¢ $190 $186 −$4 (-2%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $187 $183 −$4 (-2%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 18¢ 15¢ $209 $172 −$38 (-18%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $143 $160 +$17 (+12%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 64¢ 88¢ $110 $151 +$41 (+37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-03-22? Jun 12 $20 −$28 -138%
Will Bybit be accused of insider trading? Jun 12 $44 −$139 -317%
Devils vs. Stars Jun 12 $38 −$38 -101%
Spurs vs. Warriors Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Jun 12 $2,245 −$2,752 -123%
Bulls vs. Lakers Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-24? Jun 12 $317 −$327 -103%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? Jun 12 $26 +$152 +582%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-05-17? Jun 12 $20 −$466 -2327%
Will West Ham United win the 2025-2026 FA Cup? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April? Jun 12 $123 −$42 -34%
Knicks vs. Pacers Jun 12 $37 −$107 -292%
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? Jun 12 $3 −$116 -3618%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 7 Jun 12 $380 −$527 -138%
Canadiens vs. Lightning Jun 12 $5 −$9 -184%
Will Liverpool win the 2025-2026 FA Cup? Jun 12 $57 −$62 -107%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$16 -1802%
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-05-02? Jun 12 $60 −$60 -100%
Blues vs. Kraken Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Clippers Jun 12 $66 −$147 -223%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-03-18? Jun 12 $49 −$64 -130%
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Jun 12 $76 −$76 -100%
Will FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 −$8 -162%
Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2026-05-16? Jun 12 $21 −$26 -124%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 12 $2 −$50 -2304%
Will Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Stars vs. Bruins Jun 12 $11 −$617 -5843%
Spurs vs. Nuggets Jun 12 $80 −$195 -243%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? Jun 12 $60 −$60 -100%
Hornets vs. Suns Jun 12 $60 −$403 -671%
Will Leeds United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC end in a draw? Jun 12 $2,742 −$8,219 -300%
Will MEXC be accused of insider trading? Jun 12 $21 −$1,040 -4964%
Bruins vs. Panthers Jun 12 $9 −$28 -322%
Kings vs. Raptors Jun 12 $5 −$252 -5529%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Jun 12 $15 −$25 -166%
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Jun 12 $631 −$1,430 -227%
Hornets vs. Knicks Jun 12 $0 −$164 -3345865%
Hornets vs. Kings Jun 12 $5 −$9 -185%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-04? Jun 12 $1,350 −$1,349 -100%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 16? Jun 12 $5 −$10 -213%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? Jun 12 $38 −$27 -71%
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs? Jun 12 $5 −$6 -107%
Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-04-12? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Pistons vs. Magic Jun 12 $76 −$89 -117%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-09? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-17? Jun 12 $22 −$39 -175%
Will Manchester United FC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw? Jun 12 $39 −$39 -100%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Jun 12 $11 −$11 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 52% +$2,503
other 34% −$8,209
world 6% −$2,918
politics 3% −$33
finance 2% −$2,098
crypto 2% +$62
culture 1% −$618
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $13 1h
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $13 1h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $13 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $12 1h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 66¢ $13 1h
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 57¢ $13 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $15 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $15 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 6h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 15¢ $41 9h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 86¢ $602 9h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 14¢ $9 9h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 87¢ $150 9h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 18¢ $18 9h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 83¢ $503 9h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes 18¢ $67 9h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL No 80¢ $34 9h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY No 35¢ $15 9h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 66¢ $253 9h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 9¢ $29 9h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 9¢ $29 9h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL No 75¢ $7 9h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL No 75¢ $7 9h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 21¢ $64 9h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 21¢ $64 9h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 32¢ $102 10h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 63¢ $6 10h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $127 10h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 32¢ $102 10h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 63¢ $6 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-50.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 263 -75.0% -77.4% 5% 4% -67.9%
≤30d 399 -45.3% -50.5% 18% 15% -30.9%
≤90d 399 -45.3% -50.5% 18% 15% -30.9%
all 399 -45.3% -50.5% 18% 15% -30.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover138.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -50.5% 15% -30.9%
10% ← realistic here -55.3% 12% -37.5%
15% -59.6% 10% -43.6%
20% -63.6% 8% -49.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18,451.80 · official $18,450.43 (match) · 3500 history records