Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:45:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AF 0xaff3…2655 world 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 468d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$14 (-2%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate43%12W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 77% −$8
other 17% −$10
crypto 3% $0
sports 2% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.4% -9.9% 43% 0% -10.7%
≤30d 11 -0.8% -10.3% 27% 0% -11.0%
≤90d 18 +0.5% -9.0% 33% 6% -10.5%
all 28 -8.1% -16.9% 43% 7% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.9% 7% -11.6%
10% -24.8% 0% -20.0%
15% -32.1% 0% -27.7%
20% -38.8% 0% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

468d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses12 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 28
History coverage468d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 21 $80 −$5 -6%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 21 $45 +$1 +3%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $44 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $45 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $56 −$2 -4%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $40 +$1 +3%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $42 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $42 −$3 -6%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 23 $14 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $2 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $3 $0 +16%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 21 $53 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 20 $3 $0 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 20 $4 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 20 $21 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 19 $48 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 19 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 15 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Dec 15 $2 $0 +4%
Will Yuki Tsunoda finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Dec 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Florian Lipowitz win the Tour de France 2025? Dec 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 24 $2 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $103000 on May 9? May 10 $2 $0 +2%
Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government? Mar 26 $6 $0 -2%
Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21? Mar 18 $17 −$12 -67%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $91000 and $93000 on Mar 14? Mar 15 $17 $0 +2%
Will Liverpool win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 12 $14 +$3 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 59¢ $42 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 59¢ $16 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 59¢ $26 5h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 94¢ $46 14h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 91¢ $45 16h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $44 22h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $1 22h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $44 22h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 27h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 30h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $41 37h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $41 39h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $13 47h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $15 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $42 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $42 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $16 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $6 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 46¢ $14 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 46¢ $8 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $2 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $1 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $3 4d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 70¢ $15 26d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 70¢ $28 26d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 70¢ $42 26d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $13 27d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $6 27d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $19 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 46¢ $40 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 89 history records