Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:38:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AF 0xaff1…2960 crypto 24 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$177 (+15%) realized +$177 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate46%11W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day46.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$333
sports 3% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +17.5% +6.3% 46% 42% -42.8%
≤30d 24 +17.5% +6.3% 46% 42% -42.8%
≤90d 24 +17.5% +6.3% 46% 42% -42.8%
all 24 +17.5% +6.3% 46% 42% -42.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover46.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +6.3% 42% -42.8%
10% ← realistic here -3.8% 42% -48.3%
15% -13.1% 33% -53.3%
20% -21.6% 33% -57.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt -37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +65% → late -30% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$40 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$177
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses11 / 13
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage1d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day46.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 19 $242 −$242 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 19 $113 −$108 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 19 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 19 $52 −$21 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 19 $51 +$1 +3%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $39 +$12 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 19 $59 +$62 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 19 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 18 $35 +$23 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 18 $46 +$39 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 18 $118 −$13 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 18 $120 −$20 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 18 $50 −$48 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 18 $62 +$7 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 18 $32 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 18 $1 +$3 +315%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 18 $29 +$9 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 18 $16 +$13 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 18 $41 +$28 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $242 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $4 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $4 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $104 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Up 20¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $51 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 100¢ $51 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 76¢ $39 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Up 23¢ $121 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $59 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $21 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Down 26¢ $58 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $14 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $21 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $85 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $46 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $14 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $113 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $104 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $21 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Down 37¢ $47 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Down 23¢ $78 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $99 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $20 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $30 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 61 history records