Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T22:51:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AF 0xaff0…06d2 sports 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$56 (-17%) realized −$25 · open −$31
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%5W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% −$51
other 42% −$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-35.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -28.9% -35.7% 56% 56% -29.5%
≤30d 9 -28.9% -35.7% 56% 56% -29.5%
≤90d 9 -28.9% -35.7% 56% 56% -29.5%
all 9 -28.9% -35.7% 56% 56% -29.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.7% 56% -29.5%
10% -41.8% 11% -36.2%
15% -47.5% 11% -42.4%
20% -52.6% 11% -48.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 58% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$27 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized−$25
Unrealized−$31
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses5 / 4
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)9 / 11
History coverage3d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Panama vs. England: England O/U 2.5 Over 59¢ 18¢ $45 $14 −$31 (-69%)
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 3 Argentina? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $21 −$20 -96%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $31 −$30 -96%
Türkiye vs. United States: United States 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $21 +$14 +68%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $52 +$11 +21%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $31 −$31 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $26 −$25 -96%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $26 +$5 +21%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $31 +$5 +15%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $52 +$8 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 3 Argentina? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 1h
Panama vs. England: England O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $47 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $21 25h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $31 25h
Türkiye vs. United States: United States 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 57¢ $21 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $26 2d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 80¢ $52 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 84¢ $31 2d
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $26 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 65¢ $31 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 84¢ $52 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.18 · official $21.28 · 17 history records